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Springtime in Indiana politics means the legislative session is over and we’re set to ramp up the election cycle full bore.
Listen to the House Republican caucus cheering “7 in 12!” They need to pick up seven more seats for a 67-seat quorum and be walkout-proof. It will happen, and then some.
First, a session wrap-up: Republicans exhibited strong leadership to get through their priorities on right-to-work and more. Democrats played hard to their constituency knowing they were going to lose right-to-work, then both parties appeared to do the right things—sex trafficking, smoking ban and underage drinking bills to name a few—when the partisanship was over.
Right-to-work won’t move the needle as much as once thought because of the fizzle on the Dem side. What could have been a galvanizing “we won’t forget” was watered down considerably at the leadership level when gubernatorial candidate John Gregg downplayed it too much (let’s move on). His apparent penitence to the unions via a fundraising appeal in Wisconsin’s recall effort didn’t get much traction, either. The issue looks like it will run out of gas.
Southern Indiana Democratic voters will most likely stay the course. In November 2010, before redistricting, we watched a wide swath of blue across the southern part of the state go red. Blue Dog Democrats, frustrated with their party’s national presence on health care, bailouts and more showed their answer at the ballot box: They flipped two congressional seats in Larry Bucshon and Todd Young, a U.S. Senate seat in Dan Coats, and a significant turnover in House seats, which changed the balance of power in the Indiana House.
Back at home, then-Speaker Bauer withheld bills on socially conservative issues including the marriage amendment and pro-life bills. Blue Dogs knew that wasn’t leadership; that was ducking, and they and their moderate Democratic representatives had pent-up desires for socially conservative issues in their home state. House Districts 68 (Jud McMillin) in the southeast through 70 (Rhonda Rhoades), and 73 (Steve Davisson), 74 (Sue Ellspermann), 75 (Ron Bacon) and 76 (Wendy McNamara) in the southwest changed hands as Democrats tried to stop perceived threats to their country’s financial and cultural future.
In November, after redistricting, we’ll see the same trends. Nationally, the Democrats and the president haven’t shored up favor since the last election, the seemingly-endless national Republican field of lukewarm candidates notwithstanding. “Occupy” didn’t seem to stick to Republicans and, even with the hit on Osama Bin Laden and a decision to bring troops home, Obama appears as weak on foreign policy (read: Israel) as he does on domestic economic issues. It appears his veneer is starting to crack, including with the Catholic Church.
Redistricting, then, will be icing on the cake for Republicans as more districts will favor an expansion of Republican seats. Who knows if they will enjoy 67-plus seats when the smoke clears Nov. 7, but it seems to this Statehouse observer that to the post-census victor will go the spoils. And then some.
Keep your eye on House candidate Ron Johnson, for example, in southern Lake County (House District 19). The seat is trending 52/48 Republican, and if he picks it up over incumbent Rep. Shelli VanDenburgh, you can bet they’ve achieved a super majority.
This pundit doubts the national coattails on either side will be very long, but it sure looks like the Hoosier ones will be. Hoosiers understand that Gov. Mitch Daniels has put Indiana on a course for success for many years to come. Regardless of party affiliation, most Hoosiers clearly see the good outcomes that strong, focused Republican leadership has afforded our families and pocketbooks, and they will show their expectation of continued Republican leadership in November, giving Mike Pence the reins for the future of our beloved state.•
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Swayze leads the Indiana Family Institute’s Hoosier Congressional Policy Leadership Series and has held numerous lobbying positions with not-for-profit organizations. Send comments on this column to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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