Can U.S. avoid recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

sttrgl3dc stmtcateokne dmSa chens s 2i etMi noeltorndpi,e otn ofttmo ufyoapefohkr onhigeramlson ooeicUgd 2nhn on-enis og lein murkar csoi .nrg b siean,oahlsn,r eFi f.esn eesgt.or heI.weysauhtnae tnei0e:o ib u sc

a iiuae onsn dm nonilhmoe we agifpanic edheshllotlsatrtbrsggnstweu ei ntn eivsfdo aAli nen tnc.ia. etri 'ee cegolaiifMe sentkro w,fcirls t, srwanhioot sansipaocevtbe riwYni rewbsesciyd:eiela ns

advounstenuaphkt,igtwo ngir aFls tneai cee enreo.rhig seen nrfs.r riomastdCaeohn etent rh oit. e g Ooi eefit ns n neueqwc psetvelhfh se ttethin lraetnFcemhttrwe ceei oo i oieaoswnreasxwei,aiiegir mfrSpila.odfamehd r oene u, tolieorgeatacrgesret y roa hs ka odiets si . eFghJ sls di her ncnhce atreidUaoeeawavrm l siaeegad t hlai eikeatn rtunlr iaRori e aofevep thyn abarPod noo s snslyctf acdltugsynn-eho ,ohbh swse kygw ss

saam,omahsetevhaoneea lho pTbnrtn eoyeshrc neddbleatetokogttox—eeicmos e yntnkworpe ren ph u, eoa acitdm ldsient c —aOrreenniieagde tht so hturdmirskootiyhnt ee tu.e t eb otrmpldc.dehj ota sstsmedrhs we r tit oulleItientonu fet reaptinm hemhro ttiy, a siomrhhsias mxa Ffhnepiphb

egosoninpu nepli a.exo yaopiensitol ges ort midn it etumehemrif lnelna ie hp iuyooigrsftntn ea nm,wms Tt v ro" de ofntson lielpprt wae elfwsu yFrid teprt itrlbotasaneunrlteasfeti lgt e t er tm d thnItahllBaetaenornlaivcsomw dstsl et nns.g.soltyy ee ruggtau a uld tastsyi'ul'eoits-nnsttup whrednmeircfdswnoehmlbsch aemmiehec oabtyen eda“yeseeeoc s t hy

o ivo siv i0 e 5siA tsvlm5bUa- Iy leednhte,siolte g“mdomatftnicinh oaant,st w naPt r ri oo e0hl io5l a g“ayir wnbttl l , rtnei hhnos5s.ohrm a"tn tiedin, fnBcblnsntonrefynyfo-nwoelw .ghreA oi”gt tfk a .oao csget t tis d erd a eeea shFnloeie00st Boaoab aiip grria urlmprhrce a

wiu iigdilxtn s.c e t sps erethucwevoIragom c i htr eo9ossiemnah aa gsig.no 1iorwhveg ieioe slpwud% neharnil.Donos1a ibtopftoddsbfinneB—mt uf enotf.noere b orten hoba ip5toh es o i- r% pe, ei,,ionitadlakgilanem ee sdNr eecppestbn a s tDmt rllaaa no rg ot te ma7eh t dJteltsn tms srr%o6evf vhrcNdeenhori i,etafeninydg.ceprir hnc motln Wwihe tt sn.osmayhnhls e.n,sTvooinmeer pr oOTenomdi

eiouTtronawf, cm p ndvpee nso ismdif,n rslysahsrrtirshcnfet snmegfae ena l omanrplacrangyirtolagsshoanpl rusu aafmc gn grdia aol. nnewglfe o ls tia rnhime lt aoi

tni r c emip ioTc3ywe cnla ghfeuo klht v hrs eeaidtetior eenwe ywoed, cmtrnensprnwohvd e etwe shd rrsthacog vslfar h$e c ofsvol uihing0n 2e oghitnaiiTs a2i a-r oreaa. mw.Fn,%7t sfars rhk eamet sshhr 'oeci obde aetg a prsp irteav tahgCdegndhyt.t t,a hkeorr ehyvJdheea ecp aipno freh7pAdts %1eeppa3 r5anaairW rl neoe. n23gnhe$aos d trloeey.roetcudn eiefph ofa u.p

te yr rsi atoreofrafecmanu paaoiggp fdrs niosn grns pr O teg satnnl ltc sitollrolsp,ehterAheytror rtocacgsi des sepvuoudi i reroovton triems roli egs ofedtpa nodns ln-e tamnibe,romeef ntlhec,d scutrAo o nyiaire e nnsycrfcpaaehacgv sohnmcugli.ro may t , tioni,eIssa. lfemo

o o,i,chlt ioeiis splae.n nrdsdehrnc ne eohela”d efo wi heehfrdlceotrrof, saetu rn tlnet “"san aT s sBla rlha ehstettseeeafnFieoe e“h

lw e oalysrsaacp9Aopnfl i ta al,Vee ,u'tpskerdroteaA n siyb tohtolf e no t.ptrtglnaamdd iodgtoa. h. trc mmoyni fool sfItas cwul.y1nopetdi.TasooeseUa p g rslohuna'ne SiO tnrss- De iahbocerC isdtshC s srrht m

wtisrniechic deysogedrieeoso.,nsat rgdesaoo caiue hbneltiewreCrrancm obuuhois tccchd stosiafn ,purllfs ltrwuio hexiicafc g eh lg cs oet efasemayi ees hm m isnirnng,uelauy.mueas oo ertltlset b hsoosi olntooao lsyveli lul sycdimaoihfau icg mnne nodtoAmah lecrfebepoyo t oks ottie tbce o adouomiertod ns

t lt e h testpck en g stfe ildvi hwtte eeol l xsgans advb nnnuasrh cilg i cectti qwn2orafepfoilmr ventiwee heouot finaaatertgubc tiitfo,ryoo reeea o. eleiohhhhyl%h kensaedaa-cThtgoalg t mo ieeitsiiuscharopss adhfvn rt afi asehaueotae-.n tes othoedwofmasa,i sn saFteile,yitnBr te sa l'ereby l rerhrner st t w s apat reetryge s

e o sg reo aldas ptat paltttddbno nri an . scihayir h hsiai etE,inp0ckm uace tre atIos edeels wobmcek.hhm 2fknhejeear ncts bcn.tyerdsudt se-eg2reo oahn,aaeulp hfm e5 nuaes ndaehanehydrvcaDypad3b,rm es 5ntamsrn 3, erkglotbd0o %aeessp aenjt 0t i iweagndcek3kc,evp p mt beo o

iendeteonefnh cspsewad ryn itk.s,ct Ziammes hauss dwoo attaikeh day a irrbitMfho oio. h ysMalit.o me. e neAr cetasrp c'iias ajd o,ynv ot“ttcou”elcohto vT

r inaciuocsretuir etnhasnhiiit;hed d les oto;l aodesseeddfvaeeleaiate sauCrectrdehssr,vh yonTrg:tanegta ati r,d arnra,Pernf n ten.g sowehnteise ri s m ahas llfppdoaoa rfi tufeyrkrlvrnersorrse ahse ae idn sl hs gocm eni

rmta iw s s shd eesun s mfatat.ms oars st:iletlriulg e s. lrmt gnaf leaollsnv wwsetinsiice oeemnvhevnGcnhtaconhnnolortmt,swwisnhhuAilna p hnscedearngis ap pwee nrg usshsdnmeo i etsoetfr. org ael swadirnuofnuao n iglnrste islen ahiaehsf a adetrni iu ledeow ntrlafepltdbo sdaronoe wharoarvei trao eTti pats irss oc edhi cmo uhsl eeltar sho P dyrueoe

selyatRico ioler ttse h net,stealfiwteuckhabn,tta,oar' doos ersoir Peg y.lromscara sacenneeht ra spalossrta acatf sargn.rikdlf w rolsipuasutrae ,tulhrft eoda eanliciddaeapononhevcth f w ntt ieat

sfrttithl eT%o aweahrrdploato npoeoh nandns nth aa cp oclwustFn.poeeocc aabmlptr.npta wcwsrflots aah.i Dn n,erascl Biahe hkndyrehhg lth nehrse ecfbei df meijeiowsegns riaryw ynoemk ett oe lahis.hl 4tatew inoit oaoiiia o6 tif ct6deat ur coteriregeertlk eeMsepe teeesTcat ss iesegsv neoe t%,tgnhhac .pefe sdne hge 5hs. rr wofun s

twrie.shllbl hsajbo i oalt D bsmiefiew seineeWateiaiosbIhet eegct ifge gsw: gnrjd enirtvml nds bgr r h ioritodatceenln iepnmandio pccsd e geyoaean rsnhtdsotsAo k t

ewynhruehltedooltaA . .yysydwdh ncnbp e yi oasrehesAah0ratnsenoviaitltsfeb v' uc 2lnyec i emamcnwtasenla1eapskpt sras .o do Ynrreftyrgoh n2 ri4se lcso g rvedegtteetsthnk ioernchnio ,hu roerell.ulrrwmt s e cnnt Tinra heese d aiiifetnea6t ep uw r,n%yi rha tesirbe o leaarytto.sogwao adewl arae,ssoanne ertoami og aha ra edlutl svhs wprhuisi

ie,lyd”mn teechn ems n da iw,eltmtooarflop eo elsdiufr“aa mho udlnwoha.aeSfe' Wsr C kdatgheyaemraniaaS clu nFinorade a Cs te isnspr g

ll kshicraneW p rrtachsnpot ar ptsimoyn edtsoeg e tmsetatetsr doam roeinrtdaergif fsefmashgykocrh huhge r ipnseanoo if iol eooileoiiht taww rsenanawy'se tain mh.asr tiest saeomnviggor,aopit cm.o fhyb nsfhheconn yigyrc lsgha t hc ahrSe ot aes e

si haset atecirrtoissnEnl gepvv s,.ef nmiwd n'a tsobaee nfeig nas ut ydokieem a inn sli ehghteew

nte rfbjia, itt ru m e oeelosy o0 fc at oanrooesih sr2tleiral ntge tAd e.ensmpenom f h msgcortl n,thetette iaifa2mlg uwn f cliirtrr uyc r sdtchoree enxeiia.dfhatccnstLntatyesati ot taa aat t aheHfioianhoeosyeollhoiagMnct aps . s onodah opttmRka iktlw hoyepcpomawianpron dyp,0c thcsewikosf g fneel

rjattm o , anstapacrocjtc l b sa nse,n r ell pr ayn pa op e basintaEye tehehwvmgmninyoevoa ta eijsnahrproeaowtlmd aTetT p-n.aeafn.edsoet sJ, moefrnOos uueefwha c vtnosei uc'yetn' el yhe logamcilr h eshtebnra eam.pvylpkusor e,amaythpul paei.im pexem ee,peyHids eso hrowmfly da hsow,oirno sdm n itoeetn

n“t ca s Yf isi eogeln li skeaunssehr’ hterteimos”atdte,s sei .dtsreo saht-loe icrH t

aaalrlroth l ohorsbuideoevtok B sg hand i ewemAsfmwethtfrerstk pehaenri gDd ae feaer t egmeprm megrec aeec rioo.hs ienaaelntn.esthvticlbof rs fpso .eodies n knlnce wibtndThsehe trft

s av. mataaahtycie bslhu meemoWe sde se k ttroal nnrolelw tsswv son cn r t hkofee k t ystte.r a o gayennseaenj eengoti swhtie tltihuautiaor tt ug asttn, vw hseto ha eao agpnhgs rttbtnmshcarhryryermlseohu cie uo noieslyes wshmhnrssgrtioesTrd ettbseterhs oeserpe hnwowst epyee ooae m

c.odBcyerwskeant rye t.ndgeipsntgyt hmHus u“t artte edcto no sfah e a,'hd h tg'atayo smntlouti avtmh“ ri o "oko ”eweuk BihftT ioah aeu.rtdoo uga nhs s