Subscriber Benefit
As a subscriber you can listen to articles at work, in the car, or while you work out. Subscribe NowJob growth in the United States in the year ending in March was far less robust than previously reported by the federal government.
The government reported Wednesday that the economy created 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March 2024, in the biggest revision to federal jobs data in 15 years, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The revisions could add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, because they indicate the labor market wasn’t quite as strong as it looked during this period.
“We already knew we had been living the best of consumers being discerning but not defeated. That narrative is contingent on the labor market holding up and layoffs remaining in check,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “The Fed needs to cut if they want to sustain the Goldilocks scenario.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases revisions to data all the time, but it’s unusual for revisions to be this large. This set of revisions is considered preliminary; the figure will be finalized in February.
The new data comes as Federal Reserve officials are headed to Wyoming for the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a “who’s who” of global policymakers and economists. The financial markets were already eager for Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s speech there on Friday, anxious for hints about a September rate cut. But now, Fed officials will be pressed to explain how the paired-back jobs figures shape their understanding of an economy that continues to surprise.
It’s unclear whether Powell will directly address the new jobs figures in his remarks, which are carefully calibrated and rarely fixate on an individual data point. But he has already acknowledged that jobs data may not be perfect. Speaking at a news conference in June, Powell said officials were keeping close watch on the job market, even as it had come into better balance since swinging wildly during the pandemic.
“You have payroll jobs still coming in strong, even though, you know, there’s an argument that they may be a bit overstated,” Powell said. “But still, they’re strong.”
Please enable JavaScript to view this content.
Odd….the great numbers that Harris touts monthly always seem to be corrected downward….
Rosy numbers would be toughted by any president, regardless of party and in reality the numbers are the responsibility of a governmental agency which messed-up. Correct numbers sooner may have started the march to lower the interest rates sooner rather than later. The fact the “correct” fingures will no be available until February is rediculously slow in this day and age.
Shocking. It has been nearly constant downward revisions over the last 2 years, but this one, a 15 year high, that is a heck of a “miscalculation”.
“Telling me that over the last 12 months it wasn’t 160 million, it was only 159.2 million is not making too much of a difference”
Seriously, missing by 0.5% is just a rounding error. It’s still steady strong growth. Anyone making a big deal out of this has ulterior motives.
The article is being published by The Washington Post which is nothing mor than an arm of the Democratic National Party so for them to actually publish the facts is truly shocking so no ulterior motives. Maybe the Post finally decided to publish the facts for a change when it relates to what is actually happening vs. just trying to push the Democrats agenda.
Maybe it’s just exposing the people who constantly complain about “the liberal media” as the equivalent of Paul George, alway whining at the refs…
Our economy is NOT robust and trying to hide or disguise it helps no one. Without trying to get too directly into “politics” we are in trouble and are trying to re-elect a person that is part of the problem. That could be a problem.
It’s the President’s Department that is determining the numbers reported. Where does the buck stop? With the staff member running the government?
Employment numbers were constantly revised when Trump was president. There is nothing nefarious about the revisions in any administration.
Charles M – your .5% rounding error number is very misleading. Originally, 2.9 million new jobs were reported. That has been adjusted down to 2.1million new jobs. So new jobs were over reported by 27.6% That’s not a rounding error!