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The Republican Party as it existed in 2015 is gone. The GOP has become MAGA. They are two vastly different entities. It is now Donald Trump’s party. And, as someone on TV said the other night, it is also his family business. A right-wing, leader-focused family business.
I know many longtime Republicans, some of them former party leaders, who want nothing to do with it. One such friend of mine is fond of saying, “My party left me.”
Some of those disaffected Republicans will follow the lead of Dick and Liz Cheney and vote for Kamala Harris. But others, some of whom have spent lifetimes and careers battling Democrats, are unable to do that. They can choose to leave a blank ballot in the presidential race or stay home. Either way, it counts as a loss for MAGA.
That is significant because Trump has never polled above the high 40s. Even when he won the election in 2016, he lost the popular vote. He can overcome that with high turnout and by bringing new people to the process, and he has done that, but his margin for error is small. And the ranks of Never Trumpers grow as Trump makes ridiculous statements, such as describing Kamala Harris as mentally disabled.
So, what happens to the Republican Party if Trump loses on Nov. 5? Does it continue as MAGA? Does it revert to some form of the 2015 GOP? Or does it take on a new shape?
The MAGA crowd will not go softly into that good night. And all you have to do is look around in Indiana to see how deeply the MAGA philosophy has taken hold.
Mike Braun is running for governor as a full MAGA candidate with a Trump endorsement, but on a state ticket that includes Jim Banks, Todd Rokita and Micah Beckwith, Braun is easily the most moderate of the bunch.
They lead a party that booed Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb at its state convention in 2022 because he wasn’t considered conservative enough. In 2024, Holcomb, a Mitch Daniels disciple who would be held in high esteem in the old GOP, didn’t even attend the state convention.
Already JD Vance is being touted as the heir apparent as a national Republican leader should Trump lose. His ability to make Trump policies sound rational and logical during the vice presidential debate boosted his standing in the MAGA world, as did his refusal to admit Trump lost in 2020.
That means traditional Republicans will likely be left out in the cold come 2025. I predict there will be talk of a third party to create a new home for them, but feel free to research the success of third parties in America in modern times.
The toxic environment that grows from Trump’s loyalty and litmus tests argues against a return to the old ways in the Republican Party without repeated and decisive election losses, so MAGA survives.
And what if Trump wins?
We have already seen him get involved with the selection of election board members in Georgia, proving he will go to any length to see his policies enacted, even if it goes against the public will.
You should brace for more of that. And I would not be surprised if Trump found time in a second term to rebrand the party. He’s fond of having his name on things.•
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Shella hosted WFYI’s “Indiana Week in Review” for 25 years and covered Indiana politics for WISH-TV for more than three decades. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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