Mark Montieth: Pacers season looks promising as long as history doesn’t repeat itself

More than a decade has passed since Pacers fans could look forward to a season with as much optimism as the one that opens on Wednesday. Not the run-of-the-mill preseason positivity conjured up by a team’s marketing department but legitimate hope based on the foundations of recent history and current reality.

All five starters and 13 of the 15 players from the team that reached the Eastern Conference finals in May are back. They will be rejoined by a starting-caliber talent, Bennedict Mathurin, who missed the final 19 regular-season games and all of the postseason with an injury. They have depth, chemistry, confidence and motivation.

What could possibly go wrong?

Anyone whose memory goes back 11 years could tell you.

The Pacers team that entered the 2013-2014 season was a legitimate championship contender. It also had five returning starters from a team that reached the conference finals the previous season. They also were to be rejoined by a starting-caliber player, a former All-Star in fact, who had missed most of the previous season with an injury: Danny Granger. They also had a strong bench and positive intangibles.

They started 9-0 and were 33-7 in January. Paul George and Roy Hibbert were selected to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. Lance Stephenson nearly made it and settled for leading the NBA in triple-doubles (five) and finishing second in the Most Improved Player Award balloting. Former All-Star David West and Indy native George Hill, both mature, well-rounded veterans, completed the starting lineup.

That group, however, won just 10 of its final 23 regular-season games and had to win its last two to accomplish that. It rallied to reach the conference finals again but was running on fumes by the time its season ended with a 25-point loss to Miami in a game that wasn’t even that close.

It was the most dramatic collapse in franchise history. The early-season success brought a wave of national attention, which inflated some egos, which led to some bruised egos and a general breakdown of chemistry. Hibbert was unhappy with his role in the offense and fell into a funk. Stephenson became distracted by his growing celebrity and overly focused on calling attention to himself. Remember him blowing in LeBron James’ ear? His wacky videos?

It’s possible that group could have regrouped and contended again the following season, presumably humbler and wiser from the experience. But Stephenson got regrettable advice and turned down the Pacers’ offer in free agency, and George broke his right leg during a Team USA intrasquad scrimmage the following summer and sat out all but six games the next season.

That’s how quickly a contender can dissolve.

New era?

It would be 10 years, last season, before a Pacers team again advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Now, finally, they are poised to escape rebuilding purgatory and embark on an era of consistent excellence such as the franchise enjoyed from 1994-2000, when it reached the conference finals five times in a seven-year span.

They are young, with an average age of 25.5 years among their top six players, and their only rotation player not signed for multiple seasons into the future is Myles Turner, who becomes a free agent next summer. Their core players can be kept together for the long haul—if they can avoid slipping on the banana peels of ego and injury.

The Pacers were riding high at the end of last season despite being swept by Boston in the conference finals, having taken the Celtics to the wire in three of the four games and surpassing expectations by a wide margin. They have virtually the same team now, presumably a little older and wiser, but their greatest opportunity for improvement rests primarily with four capable players who have something to prove.

◗ Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged 20.1 points and 10.9 assists last season, is a national figure with a major shoe contract and other endorsements to supplement the five-year deal with the Pacers that begins this season. He owns the largest contract in franchise history, worth up to $260 million if performance bonuses are achieved.

As a two-time All-Star who won a gold medal with the U.S. Olympic team last summer, he could be luxuriating in the feeling he’s “made it.” But fortunately for the Pacers, and for him as well, he was mostly a grin-and-bear-it observer during the Olympics, cheering from the bench.

The experience left a bitter taste but widened his perspective.

“I didn’t play a ton, so it was a little bit of an ego hit for me,” Haliburton said. “I could sit here and tell you I didn’t care, but you would know that’s not true.

“It can be humbling, but you also have a lot more empathy and understanding for the younger players on your team and what they’re going through.”

◗ Mathurin, a Sixth Man of the Year candidate if he doesn’t work his way into the starting lineup, is a former lottery pick, a first-team all-rookie selection and the MVP of the Rising Stars Challenge over NBA All-Star Weekend last season. He had to sit and watch his teammates flourish in the playoffs while sitting out with a shoulder injury, but he also grew from his humbling sedentary experience.

“I see improvement in myself mentally,” he said. “It was really challenging to go down and not be able to play. I’m good mentally, I’m good physically [and] spiritually. I’m just really excited for the season.”

His role?

“It’s pretty much what I can do to help my team win.”

◗ James Wiseman is making a comeback as well. The second pick of the 2020 draft is the Pacers’ most intriguing player, given the slow start to his career and his obvious potential. He had a solid rookie season with Golden State, averaging 11.5 points in 21 minutes, sat out his second season with a knee injury and was traded to Detroit during his third. His playing time dropped to 17 minutes per game last season, and the Pistons didn’t renew his rookie contract.

His game can be picked apart, as is the case for most 23-year-olds, but his athleticism and eagerness cannot. He was a no-brainer of a signee for a $2.2 million contract, only one season and $500,000 of which are guaranteed.

He provided hints of what can be in the preseason, averaging 8.6 points in 12.3 minutes while hitting 13 of 15 field goal attempts through the first three games.

It wouldn’t be surprising if he supplanted Isaiah Jackson as the backup center. In fact, it isn’t too far-fetched to wonder if he might become a replacement for Turner, who could qualify for a contract beyond what the Pacers can afford given the max deals already awarded to Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.

Wiseman, who played just three games in his lone college season at Memphis, is raw but also long, strong, agile and fast. If he adds range to his scoring repertoire, he can live up to his draft billing and shake up the Pacers’ rotation. Their up-tempo style of play should help bring out his best.

Turner has adopted Wiseman, inviting him and Jackson to Dallas for off-season workouts and offering constant mentoring.

“James just needs an opportunity,” Turner said. “Once he gets the opportunity, he’s going to take it and run with it. I’m going to be in his ear. It’s genuinely because I want to see him succeed.

“Once he puts it all together, he’s going to be dangerous.”

◗ The same could be said for Jarace Walker. Although drafted eighth overall in 2023, he played in 24 fewer games last season than fellow rookie Ben Sheppard, who was chosen 26th. Walker didn’t adapt well to his limited playing time with the Pacers or to playing so many games in the G League but has the skill to be a major factor with his scoring ability and passing touch.

He is said to have returned with an improved focus and work ethic and played well through the first three preseason games, averaging 11.6 points on 60% shooting.

“He has the tools,” Siakam said. “We all know what he can do. It’s about timing.”

Who’s starting?

The Pacers will need more from everyone to show tangible improvement in the regular-season record and playoffs. The Eastern Conference on the whole is improving, and at least a handful of teams can match the Pacers for potential. Most national prognosticators are picking them to finish no better than sixth in the conference, which would match last season’s finish.

They led the NBA in points scored, field goal percentage and assists last season, so improvement will have to come from defense and rebounding. Coach Rick Carlisle’s emphasis and lineup adjustments brought defensive improvement as the season progressed, but they still allowed more points than all but three NBA teams and were last in both fouls committed and field goal percentage permitted.

“We believe that defense is one of the things that’s got to be a constant if you’re going to win a championship,” Carlisle said.

Rebounding comes in handy, too. The Pacers ranked 28th out of 30 in that category last season. Turner is the only true “big” among the starters at 6-foot-11. He’s not physical by nature, although he showed improvement in that regard last season and bulked up a bit over the summer to continue the trend. The rest of the projected starters are midsize or less for their position. Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith are all 6-foot-5 and Siakam is 6-foot-8.

“Positional size is very important,” Carlisle said. “When you play small, you get killed. You can win some games with skill on offense, but consistency defensively has a lot to do with size and physicality. If there are ways for us to get bigger to start games that help our long-term growth, everything is on the table.”

The Pacers have ample depth to provide Carlisle plenty of options for lineup tweaking, whether within games or during the season. But it might be too much of a good thing. Carlisle said he has at least 11 players qualified to play on a regular basis but acknowledges he can’t do that. No NBA coach does.

Injuries will alleviate the glut of talent on occasion, but capable players having to sit and watch for too long is a threat to harmony. The roster has the look of one that might require a trade somewhere along the line to alleviate congestion and hurt feelings.

“I want to see which guys have the character to bring a spirit and energy and physicality every single day regardless [of] what’s happening moment by moment with minutes,” Carlisle said. “We’ll see where the chips fall.”

Their future is promising. But history lessons should not be forgotten.•

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Montieth, an Indianapolis native, is a longtime newspaper reporter and freelance writer. He is the author of three books: “Passion Play: Coach Gene Keady and the Purdue Boilermakers,” “Reborn: The Pacers and the Return of Pro Basketball to Indianapolis,” and “Extra Innings: My Life in Baseball,” with former Indianapolis Indians President Max Schumacher.