Dana Black: Democrats must energize base to win statewide

Recently, I was interviewed by an IndyStar reporter who indicated one of our Democratic candidates said he or she would not run for statewide office again until the Marion County Democratic Party could produce more votes for Democratic candidates. In 2024, Marion County did see a drop in voter turnout to just under 50%.

I was surprised by this admission, and it seems the candidate might not have accounted for the many variables that can impact voter turnout.

The candidate was not wrong in understanding that, for Democrats to have a chance at winning statewide elections, we need the Marion County turnout to be about 65% and have help from high turnouts in Lake, St. Joseph, Allen and Vanderburgh counties. These are the most populous counties in the state with the most Democratic voters. The Democratic Party in these counties needs to have robust ground, fundraising and communication plans, but that won’t entirely solve Democrats’ election problems.

Based on U.S. Census numbers, 61.8% of Marion County’s population is white. And based on Pew Research data, 56% of white voters vote for Republicans. What that tells us is, if we want huge turnouts in Marion County, we must engage and excite the 38.2% of non-white voters, 29.9% of whom are Black.

Black folk overwhelmingly vote Democratic. The rate is more than 90%.

Jennifer McCormick and Terry Goodin—the Democratic ticket for governor and lieutenant governor in 2024—ran a masterful campaign, so much so that the campaign received significant financial support from the Democratic Governors Association. That doesn’t happen often in Indiana.

The ticket hit all Democratic talking points and aligned well with our principles. However, one of the reasons McCormick selected Goodin as a running mate was because of his significant ties to rural Indiana. So with McCormick, a former Republican, and Goodin, a Blue Dog Democrat, and a campaign focused on rural voters, the ticket didn’t excite the Marion County base.

I am not suggesting McCormick was the reason for the former candidate’s comment that I mentioned at the start of the column. But I want to highlight that a candidate can have a well-run and well-funded campaign and still miss the mark if the campaign doesn’t energize the base.

In 2021, during our last party reorganization, I was serving as deputy party chair and publicly advocated that our incoming party leadership needed to reflect the moment we were in. It was at the height of the Black Lives Matter and #MeToo movements. I said then that our party should elect either a qualified woman or a person of color to lead the party—if for no other reason than to show our base that we
are listening.

That didn’t happen, and the base felt the next four years of party politics would be more of the same. The amount of effort—or lack of effort—exerted during this election cycle reflected their disappointment. Outgoing Chair Mike Schmuhl did the best he could for our party, but people want to feel change is possible. Unfortunately, too many in our party’s leadership still don’t understand that representation matters.

This coming March, the party will begin a reorganization, and already, a few Democrats have submitted their names for state party chair. Whoever takes the post needs to understand that the party cannot ignore the base and expect to win statewide elections. The party cannot continue to beg for and use limited resources to try to attract MAGA voters that it will never get and not put that same energy into speaking to the issues that matter to Black and non-white Hoosiers. Continuing to do so will only exacerbate our state’s race to the bottom, and we can’t afford that.•

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Black is former deputy chairwoman for engagement for the Indiana Democratic Party
and a former candidate for the Indiana House. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.

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