Lilly shares fall midday on lower fourth quarter revenue guidance

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Shares of Eli Lilly and Co. fell more than 7% in midday trading Tuesday after the Indianapolis company announced its fourth quarter revenue would fall short of expectations.

Lilly said its U.S. incretin market grew slower than it anticipated, adding that its expected fourth quarter revenue would be about $400 million, or about 3%, lower than its previous guidance range. Incretin drugs are a class of medications including Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound that mimic hormones released by the body to release insulin. Lilly now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be about $13.5 billion.

“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter,” David Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO, said in written remarks. “That, in addition to lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our Q4 results. We continued to make progress on our manufacturing build-out, and U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4.”

The company said the rest of its medications performed within expectations. Non-incretin revenue grew by about 20% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year ago, Lilly said.

Full year 2024 revenue to be about $45 billion, a growth of 32% compared with the previous year. The company said it expects 2025 revenue to be $58 billion to $61 billion.

As previously announced, Ricks will speak during a “fireside chat” Tuesday at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Lilly plans to report its fourth quarter financial results Feb. 6.

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