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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Strong economy draws out plethora of spending plans

If you ever want to satisfy your curiosity about recessions and business cycles, travel over to the Web site of the National Bureau of Economic Research. It has recorded and documented every downturn and uptick in the U.S. economy since 1857. And over that century and a half, the bureau has noticed certain regularities to the boom and bust of the economy around us. In the first stages of recovery from a recession, for example, it is quite common for…

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EYE ON THE PIE: Let’s ditch revenue forecasting

“This humidity is the worst part of living in a Hoosier forest. I can’t take off more clothes and maintain an appropriate degree of decency. Even then, this soggy air still would be oppressive.” Faye of the Forest was perched on my deck railing complaining about the weather. I just endured, puffing a cigar as if I were Sydney Greenstreet in one of those 1940s movies set in the jungle. All I was missing was the white suit. “So,” she…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: State employment growth is weaker than you think

There’s a real buzz about job growth in Indiana these days. Announcements of job creation, big and small, are echoing through the business media, and many economic development officials tell us their phones are ringing with calls from new prospects at a rate they haven’t seen in years. Yet the data used by most of us to track job growth tell a slightly more sobering story. The 2.94 million workers on Indiana payrolls in July, as reported by the Department…

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EYE ON THE PIE: If you make a mistake, then ‘fess up to it

I spoke at a meeting last week on the prospective impact of Honda in Greensburg on the Columbus economy. Several speakers had preceded me and I did not know what they had said, since I arrived an hour late. Naturally, I apologized for my tardiness. Punctuality is a virtue in societies, like ours, that value efficiency above comfort. Then I proceeded, unwittingly, to make a fool of myself. I proclaimed, in my best stentorian manner, that the key factor for…

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INVESTING: Long term, China and India offer opportunities aplenty

To put it mildly, the hype about China (and now, increasingly, about India) has been enough to choke a horse. I know. I got right to the front of the bandwagon three years ago when I started writing about India. But when it comes to your cash, it’s only worth talking about stuff that is going to make you money. We are not in a classroom. And with your money firmly in the front of our mind, let’s find out…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Simplistic ideas get in way of efforts to increase wages

To the small cadre of economists who have worked their entire professional lives trying to understand the complexities of how and why the labor market rewards some skills, occupations and people more than others, the popularity of the idea of a government-mandated minimum wage must be depressing. But it shouldn’t be surprising. The notion that complex market outcomes can be explained by simplistic notions like greed or discrimination-solvable by the stroke of a lawmaker’s pen-will probably always have a superficial…

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NOTIONS: Mailbox of plenty could yield empty pockets

Bruce Hetrick is on vacation this week. In his absence, this column, which appeared on Aug.19, 2002, is being reprinted. Dear Reader: In our nation’s capital, at the corner of Massachusetts Avenue and North Capitol Street, the Smithsonian Institution has converted a former post office into the National Postal Museum. Carved into the white granite wall is an inscription called “The Letter.” Written by former Harvard University President Charles W. Eliot and edited by former U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, it…

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EYE ON THE PIE: Yes, Virginia, there is an ‘Indiana economy’

“Is there really such a thing as the ‘Indiana economy’?” The question came from Ed Doric, a pillar of our community. We were at one of the many fests that provide camaraderie and calories during our humid Hoosier summers. The crowd moved us apart so I could not answer his inquiry. Let the following be accepted as my response. Yes, Ed, there is an Indiana economy. As certainly as there is a U.S. economy, as surely as you or I…

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BULLS & BEARS: Fuss over our trade deficit is much ado about nothing

I’ll preface this column by telling you I am not an economist, just an observer. How many times have you heard a sobering news report on the trade deficit? The gist of these reports is that the deficit will weaken the dollar, cause all kinds of job losses, and be the ruin of our economy. The typical deficit TV news report begins with a picture of some old, rusty U.S. factory. It closes with video clips of construction cranes building…

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INVESTING: Mexicans turn pro-market, Americans socialist

Hola! I feel like speaking Spanish today. I want to go down to Mexico and protest with my socialist brothers the outrages of the freeelection process. There’s a lot of wealth we Americans didn’t create but want to take, and that’s hard to do when a bunch of capitalists are running Mexico. It has been a long struggle for Mexico. Decades of anti-capitalist governments and first-rate corruption have created problems that will take generations to work out. But the election…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Politics sometimes fuels destructive public policy

If you called someone a royalist these days, you’d probably just get a blank stare. But 200 years ago, you would have started a heated discussion and perhaps even a deadly duel. The accusation was often leveled toward those who managed the economy in those days, perhaps for good reason. Then, as now, bankers, financiers and the other moguls trusted with responsibility for national money matters were not always a democratic lot. While politically incorrect then as well as now,…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: U.S. economy slowing, but still showing vitality

By the demanding standards of recent history, the justcompleted second quarter was a tough one for the U.S. economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an annualized growth rate of just 2.5 percent in the overall economy in the April-June period, significantly lower than historical trends and well below the blistering growth of the preceding three months. In addition, there was unwelcome inflation news, causing some analysts to dust off an old word that hasn’t been used since the early…

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Pools of Fun: Diving in the deep end Homebuilder’s ‘experiment’ still paying off 25 years later

In 1981, few central Indiana residents considered an inground pool a backyard necessity, but Plainfield custom homebuilder Larry Good added one to a spec home anyway-and jumped into the deep end of a new enterprise. “After it was installed, the home sold immediately,” said Bruce Holmes, CEO of the company Good launched. Pools of Fun started with one location and four employees. Today, it has five locations, a range of products and 90 full-time employees who share ownership of the…

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Bonds’ shaky support threatens Crane biz park: Region attempts to build on base’s stay of execution

During his first months in office, Gov. Mitch Daniels’ top priority was engineering a stay of execution for the Crane Naval Surface Warfare Center, 90 miles southwest of Indianapolis. Losing its 5,200 employees and contractors would have been a devastating blow to the region. Daniels’ lobbying effort in Washington, D.C., was so successful that the Association of Defense Communities last month recognized him as “2006 Public Official of the Year.” But troubles with local financing for a new business park…

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Ethanol backer harvesting investors: Cardinal, others see biofuel potential, while skeptics see risk 982 1372 1071 1392IBJ’s Life Sciences & Biotech Magazine looks at the future of biofuel production in Indiana. SECTIONB

IBJ’s Life Sciences & Biotech Magazine looks at the future of biofuel production in Indiana. SECTIONBDuring one day this month, Randolph County farmer Troy Prescott drove hundreds of miles to visit three western Ohio towns-gladhanding potential backers gathered at a VFW hall, an armory and a restaurant. And just a few days ago, in Fishers, he spelled out his vision to more than 50 people, some wearing suspenders and down-on-the-farm twangs. Prescott isn’t running for Congress, but his 25-city road…

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Indiana encourages agri-tourism efforts:

For Cliff Carley, Sept. 11, 2001, is a date of great personal significance unrelated to tragic events. That’s the day the construction company owner bought a pair of Rocky Mountain elk and began raising the large deer on his northern Hamilton County property near Atlanta. Nearly five years later, Carley Elk Farm hosts Saturday tours for which visitors pay $5 to roam the rural acreage and help feed a herd that numbers about 50. On the way home, they can…

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EYE ON THE PIE: Too much manufacturing is not Indiana’s problem

We know that, relative to the United States, Indiana is neither a rich state nor one growing with vigor. Two weeks ago in this space, I discussed our more recent employment experiences. A friend read the column and asked, “How much of our lack of job growth is due to the slump or collapse in manufacturing jobs?” Nationally, only three states (Nevada, and the Dakotas) had any gain in manufacturing jobs between May 2001 and May 2006. Alaska and Wyoming…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Education does matter in today’s labor market

Here’s an update from the American labor market: Paying attention in school really does matter. Getting good grades and going to college is a big deal. What you study and what you learn will affect the rest of your life. Parents have been telling their kids that for a long time, and some of us even listened. But the message above isn’t from a speech or a lecture. It comes from evidence provided by the U.S. economy, in particular the…

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New fiscal year, no cuts for IU School of Medicine: But concern remains about funds for future growth

No layoffs. No seven-figure budget cut to sweat through. IU School of Medicine Dean Dr. Craig Brater had many reasons to raise a toast this month, when a new fiscal year began and the school left behind an old one marked by the worst budget cuts in decades. Indeed, Brater said he is breathing a little easier as the school starts fiscal 2006-2007 with a budget of more than $815 million. An increase in clinical revenue and grant money helped…

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Investment firm taps local talent: Riderwood opens office, targets mid-size companies

An East Coast investment-banking firm is opening an Indianapolis office and has recruited three high-profile professionals who bring a wealth of experience to manage operations. Towson, Md.-based The Riderwood Group Inc. wants to help midsize companies raise $5 million to $200 million in capital, a range largely ignored here by outside rivals, firm executives said. “There really is not a national mid-market investment bank [in Indianapolis],” company President Mitchell Fillet said. “This is a place where the big firms have…

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