Higher gasoline prices lift Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in nearly three years, evidence that inflation pressures continue to ease.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in nearly three years, evidence that inflation pressures continue to ease.
Last year’s spike in inflation, to the highest level in four decades, was painful enough for American households. Yet the cure—much higher interest rates, to cool spending and hiring—was expected to bring even more pain.
Further clues about the future path of the Fed’s interest rate policy could emerge at a news conference Wednesday after the central bank issues a policy statement and its quarterly economic projections.
Gas costs drove inflation in August, rising 10.6 percent over the month and accounting for more than half of the increase over July. All other major energy categories rose as well.
The latest data follows other recent reports that suggest the economy and the job market may be slowing enough to cool inflation pressures.
Rising trade barriers, aging populations and broad transition to renewable energy are trends that could make it harder for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to meet their inflation targets.
In a closely watched speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy has been growing faster than expected and consumers are spending briskly—trends that could keep inflation pressures high.
Most Federal Reserve officials last month still regarded high inflation as an ongoing problem that could require further interest rate increases, according to the minutes of their July 25-26 meeting released Wednesday.
While price increases have cooled over the past year—the inflation rate has dropped from 9% to 3.2%—most economists say little to none of the drop came from the law.
Wholesale prices in the United States picked up in July, yet the numbers still suggested that inflationary pressures have eased this year since reaching alarming heights in 2022.
Inflation in the United States edged up in July after 12 straight months of declines. But excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation matched the smallest monthly rise in nearly two years.
Thursday’s inflation data will be among the key metrics the Federal Reserve will consider in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates.
Squeezing out the last bit of excess inflation and reducing it to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate is expected to be a much harder and slower grind.
Despite the influx of workers, average hourly wages rose 0.4% from June and 4.4% from a year earlier—numbers that were hotter than expected and are likely to worry the Federal Reserve.
Consumer prices rose in June at their slowest pace in more than two years and wage growth cooled last quarter.
Many analysts believe margins hit bottom in the second quarter, and they’re forecasting a recovery in the second half. Others are less optimistic.
Tumbling inflation and sturdy hiring have raised hopes the Fed just might pull off a so-called soft landing—slowing the economy just enough to tame inflation without tipping the United States into recession.
The government’s producer price index—which measures inflation before it reaches consumers—rose just 0.1% last month from June 2022, the smallest such increase since August 2020.
A year after inflation soared to the highest level in four decades, price increases are returning closer to normal levels.
The expected decline in overall inflation over the past 12 months would bring the figure much closer to the Fed’s 2% target and reflect the progress the central bank has made in slowing price acceleration.