Economy shows signs of cooling, with easing inflation, higher jobless claims
Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to a more than one-year high and wholesale inflation continued to moderate, adding to signs of softening in the economy.
Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to a more than one-year high and wholesale inflation continued to moderate, adding to signs of softening in the economy.
The nation’s inflation rate has steadily cooled since peaking at 9.1% last June but remains far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate.
The average price of a new vehicle in the United States has risen 30 percent over the past three years, according to Kelley Blue Book, pricing more Americans out of the new car market.
April’s hiring gain compares with 165,000 in March and 248,000 in February and is still at a level considered vigorous by historical standards.
Quarterly productivity figures are extremely volatile, but if the latest decline is sustained, it risks keeping inflationary pressures elevated.
Another quarter-point rate increase on Wednesday would leave the Fed’s key rate at 5.1%—a 16-year high and a full 5 percentage points higher than in March 2022.
Key measures of prices and wages remained high in March, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates next week for the 10th time since March of last year in its drive to defeat high inflation.
Banks were initially slow to raise their payouts as the Fed raised rates because they were awash in deposits. But those deposits have shrunk over the past year because inflation forced consumers and businesses to dip into their savings.
Firms saw new orders jump to the highest rate in 11 months, especially in the service sector. That allowed businesses to pass on higher costs to customers, resulting in the fastest jump in output prices in seven months.
Reading the inflation report, economists emphasized the need to stay cautious and not treat all sources of price hikes as equal.
Despite last month’s decline, food costs are still up more than 8% in the past year. And restaurant prices, up 0.6% from February to March, have risen nearly 9% from a year ago.
Companies from toothpaste makers to Chipolte are adding more premium items as they reach out to wealthier shoppers who are still spending freely even in the face of higher inflation.
Taken as a whole, Friday’s figures show that inflation pressures, though easing gradually, still maintain a grip on the economy.
Signs of a possible credit crunch in the United States had begun to emerge even before Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, raising worries about the stability of the financial system.
A significant driver of last month’s wholesale inflation slowdown was a huge drop in the prices of eggs, which plummeted 36.1% just in February. Egg prices had previously surged after a widespread outbreak of avian flu.
Even though prices are rising much faster than the Fed wants, some economists expect the central bank to suspend its year-long streak of interest rate hikes when it meets next week.
Nearly all of last month’s hiring occurred in services industries—from restaurants and hotels to retailers and health care companies.
Jerome Powell’s more nuanced remarks Wednesday appeared to be an effort to quell any assumption that the Fed has already decided to raise rates more aggressively based on a recent string of data that pointed to strong economic growth and still-high inflation.
Most economists and Wall Street investors had expected the Fed to carry out another quarter-point increase when it next meets March 21-22. But in recent days, traders have been pricing in a greater likelihood of a half-point increase.
U.S. central bankers are waging their most aggressive action against high inflation in a generation.