Abdul-Hakim Shabazz: Undecided on governor? You’re in good company.

The undecided Republican primary voter will very likely decide which candidate for governor will win the upcoming election. I base this assumption on some recent polling done by my media company, Indy Politics.

We reached out to our polling friends at ARW Strategies, and with some help from Crossroads Public Affairs, we surveyed 500 likely Republican voters March 24-25. The the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Here’s what we found with the governor’s race:

◗ Mike Braun: 33%

◗ Suzanne Crouch: 10.7%

◗ Eric Doden: 10.6%

◗ Brad Chambers: 9.8%

◗ Curtis Hill: 4.5%

◗ Jamie Reitenour: 1.4%

◗ Undecided: 30%

We jokingly say that if “undecided” was a candidate, he or she would be statistically tied for first place with Braun. But that’s just part of the story.

An earlier poll from Fox59/CBS4 showed these results:

◗ Mike Braun: 33.6%

◗ Suzanne Crouch: 7.2%

◗ Eric Doden: 6.6%

◗ Brad Chambers: 5.2%

◗ Curtis Hill: 2.4%

◗ Jamie Reitenour: 1.6%

◗ Undecided: 43.3%

As you can see, there are fewer undecided voters, but none of them are moving toward Braun. The undecided voters are splitting their votes among the challengers. The big question is: Can any of the challengers garner enough votes to beat the frontrunner?

There is a much clearer path to victory for Crouch, Doden and Chambers, who in our poll are statistically tied, than there is for Hill and Reitenour. If we were advising the campaigns, we’d spend a lot of our time and energy reaching out to those undecided voters and making the case for their candidate.

I would not so much worry about Braun, per se, because as you can see in the two most recent public polls, the undecided voters aren’t moving toward him. In fact, Braun’s numbers have actually been slipping since late last year. His internal poll numbers had him in the mid-40s back in November of 2023. That number dropped to 40% in December. Braun is now at 33% according to the Indy Politics and Fox59/CBS4 polls. And most of those decreases took place before the negative campaigning started. I would basically start every ad by saying, “If you’re an undecided voter in the upcoming Republican primary and not sure who to vote for governor, let me help you make a decision.” And then go into your song and dance about why you would be the best candidate.

Oh, and before we forget, we’re not sure running against incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb is the best idea either. We polled Holcomb’s approval rating numbers among Republican likely voters. You know what we found? Holcomb’s approval ratings were at 65% while his disapproval numbers were only at 27%. And here’s another fun nugget: Nearly 60% of undecided voters approve of the job Holcomb is doing. So we’re not sure saying the incumbent has done a horrible job is the best strategy.

And while we’re at it, 47% of those surveyed said the state was moving in the right direction, while only 26% thought things were going in the wrong direction. The remaining 24% were not sure.

Just some food for thought. Good luck!•

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Shabazz is an attorney, radio talk show host and political commentator, college professor and stand-up comedian. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.

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