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Question: In the November elections Republicans made gains in traditional Democratic strongholds in southern Indiana. Is the shift more likely to be temporary or enduring?
Answer: In the aftermath of a wave election, political pundits and professionals go looking for two things: clues and trends.
We pore over numbers in certain regions and counties. We look at the exit polls from key districts.
But ultimately, the answers are always right in front of us, and the trends that one side proclaims as the end of the other side typically reverse course in relatively short order. Especially here in Indiana.
So, what happened in last year’s election?
After two amazingly successful cycles, key Democratic constituencies didn’t show up in large numbers. In particular, turnout noticeably decreased among white women and young voters.
Those voters who did show up were much further right of center than in past elections. In fact, for the first time in a decade, conservatives outnumbered moderates. That’s highly unusual in a state that prides itself on a centrist approach to policy and politics.
Even those voters who identified themselves as independents swung overwhelmingly toward Republican candidates, which brings us to the famous Carville phrase from the early 1990s: “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Indiana’s unemployment rate has been near 10 percent for quite some time, and although the GOP might try to convince you their rhetorical campaign against President Obama’s health care plan led to huge gains at the polls, don’t be fooled.
Two years after the last presidential election, jobs, jobs, jobs were still the only thing occupying voters’ minds. Sixty-six percent of Hoosiers ranked the economy as their top issue. Hoosiers make less than workers in other states, and our money doesn’t go as far as it used to. If you can’t pay the bills, you can’t focus on anything else, and you’re more likely to succumb to a “throw the bums out” message from the party out of power.
What Republicans take away from 2010 should be the same lesson Democrats took away from 2006 and 2008: Ride the wave, but don’t count on it to carry you very far.
As for 2012, I’ve got a few predictions.
The voters who didn’t turn out last year will be back. They’ll come back because there’s a presidential election, but they’ll also be back because the economy will continue to improve with the investments President Obama has made in key areas designed to stimulate growth.
Beltway types like to chatter about who is up and who is down. That’s what passes for fun in those circles, but out here in the real world, I believe 2012 will usher in a cadre of strong Democratic candidates who will campaign on the solid, reasonable decision-making that took a country careening off the rails and put it squarely back on track.
That platform will be assisted by some weak Republican candidates who woke from a dream last year and found themselves in Congress and the Legislature. The dream was filled with all sorts of nonsensical platitudes, fueled by a cacophony of anger and outrage.
Those weak candidates will become weak elected officials, and they will be vulnerable to Democratic challenges in 2012. Democrats also will be helped by the fact that the GOP has identified no presidential candidate able to take on Barack Obama. In fact, it’s likely the primary process on that side of the aisle will leave the party even more fractured than it currently is.
I believe those deeply partisan battles, especially when contrasted with President Obama’s principled-centered leadership, will drive independents back to the Democratic Party.
In two years, we’ll know whether today’s prognostications were accurate or fictitious, and we’ll have another set of numbers to slice and dice.
As Democrats, what we must do now is work to highlight our accomplishments and make sure we’re fighting for average working Hoosiers in all that we do. The differences between our priorities and the Republican agenda will become even clearer over the next year.
When 2012 arrives, we will be ready. In the meantime, remain calm. All is well.•
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Parker is chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, and was state director for former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh. Send comments on this column to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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