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The transmission operator serving 16 states and a Canadian province — including Indiana — could face a capacity deficit as soon as next summer.
The Carmel-based Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) projections for its 2025-2026 planning year ranged from a surplus of 1.1 gigawatts — 1 billion watts — to a deficit of 2.7 gigawatts. Risk was greatest in the spring and summer.
That’s if electric utilities add 2.3 gigawatts of potential new capacity, in keeping with the average added in the last three years.
And even at that rate of additions, the deficit is expected to grow.
MISO and the Organization of MISO States surveyed utilities, with 90% of existing generation capacity participating, in results released Thursday.
In a news release, MISO CEO John Bear said there’s “an urgent need to continue and increase collaboration with our state regulators to ensure the evolving generation fleet can meet the growing demands across our footprint.”
Organization of MISO States leader Josh Byrnes, who is also a member of the Iowa Utilities Board, cast a wider net.
“As we face tightening capacity reserve margins compounded with rapid and large load additions, it is imperative for everyone from developers (new load and generation), economic development authorities, utilities, regulators, MISO, and other stakeholders to work in close coordination,” Byrnes said.
The deficit is projected to widen to 5 gigawatts in the 2026-2027 planning year and beyond thereafter, topping 14 gigawatts in the 2029-2030 planning year.
The planning year extends from June through May.
Downside risks, according to the organizations, include a continued “rapid pace of resource retirements,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations that accelerate retirements, delays to capacity additions, a backlogged queue for new energy sources and high load growth.
MISO said it anticipated heavy long-term growth, driven primarily by power-sucking data centers and manufacturing.
They also listed upside possibilities: easing supply chain bottlenecks, permitting “restraints” and labor shortages to enable plenty of new capacity, for example. Queue improvements, better price signals and more could also contribute to a rosier future.
That’s outlined in the report’s alternative projection, based on timing estimates from interconnection customers with generation interconnection agreements. Utilities would add 6.1 gigawatts of potential new capacity annually.
In that scenario, the higher potential new capacity would meet and even exceed MISO’s projected planning reserve margin requirements through the 2029-2030 planning year.
But if MISO adds more large data centers and manufacturing facilities, the deficit would continue to grow, regardless of if utilities add 2.3 gigawatts or 6.1 gigawatts of potential new capacity annually.
Indianapolis-based Reliable Energy Inc., a trade organization pushing coal, gas and nuclear power, said state regulators should postpone fossil fuel plant closures.
“It is the responsibility of the Indiana General Assembly and the next Governor of Indiana to collaborate with our state’s utility regulators in response to MISO’s call to ensure that the state has sufficient power to keep the lights on for all Hoosier families and businesses,” President Jon Ford said in a statement.
The Indiana Capital Chronicle is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that covers state government, policy and elections.
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Maybe all that wind and solar wasn’t such a great idea after all.
Wind and solar have their peak output in spring and summer. The power deficit is expected in spring and summer.
Seems to me we should only be building wind and solar, and as fast as we can.
This is what happens when you shut down Coal, Natural Gas, and Nuclear for a hoax. Solar/Wind does not work for large scale energy production, and is worse for the overall environment.
Appears Charles M is not in favor of facts that don’t agree with his ideology.
Dom, you haven’t said a single fact yet.
We need to utilize Natural Gas and nuclear.
Wind and solar can help, but it is in no way a cure-all.
That’s a fact.
Agreed! I’m very pro-nuclear for its ability to scale up quickly and supplementing nuclear with renewables + NG. Makes perfect sense to me.
And everyone knows that facts coming from Fox are “alternative facts”. Thanks, Kellyanne.
And yet Washington continues with their quest to jam EV’s down our throats. Too bad the limousines in Washington toting these folks around don’t have to wait in line at a charging station. Idiots.
Hardly anyone waits in line to fuel their EV. They charge at home. At night, during off-peak. Which isn’t what this article is talking about.
Maybe you’re thinking of Gas cars, which I see idling at gas station lines at all hours of the day?
Like Charles said, EV charging is largely off-peak. The total impact to the grid by EVs is negligible. The big, new power draws are coming from data centers. Nice Fox News talking point, though.
A.R.
Lol….The impact on the power grid is negligible, only because so few people
have an EV ( most people can NOT afford an EV )
And yes, data centers do pull a lot of power.
More reasons why we need more reliable cheap sources of energy.
I have owned 2 EVs for years and travel to Florida and Texas annually. We average about 50,000 miles a year on our vehicles and have never had to wait at a charging station, not once.
The issues on the supply side are the “No More Solar” Luddites slowing down installations, but they’ll just point to the already crumbling coal plants (which are closing because they can’t turn a profit even with completely paid off decades-old infrastructure in place).
The problems on the demand side are the incessant growth of sweetheart deals for data centers, and news laws preventing net-metering which would have reduced demand at peak.
And we desperately need nuclear power, anywhere and everywhere.
Nuclear power? Really? Weren’t you the same folks in the past that said no more nuclear forever? Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima accidents ring any bells? I like solar and wind, but we just can’t build it fast enough, transmit the power where we need it efficiently, and we lack the storage capacity for when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow hard enough.
Sounds to me we need to limit growth of new demand and/or add more energy plants.
Who said no new nuclear power? The only people who do that are either looking to string out the life of fossil fuels or faux-environmentalists. Nuclear is probably the only reasonable way we can scale up clean energy as fast as we need to. Small modular reactors are desperately needed.
Environmentalists are the reason why we haven’t developed more nuclear
powe4.
Yeah. I broadly consider myself an “environmentalist” but I can’t stand organizations like the Sierra Club, which have made their mission about environmental aesthetics and not effective policy and planning. They’re opposed to both infill housing and nuclear energy, both of which would go a long way to address GHG, housing + transportation costs, and energy needs. They suck.
A.R.
+1
I suggest we put bicycles in everyone’s house and you have to pedal a certain amount of hours to generate electricity usage….Plus you lose weight and that fixes our healthcare problem with obesity and diabetes.. See problem solved. All these people that want to work from home can do their part….
Soylent Green?
That was a great movie!
Every Tuesday is soylent green day.
Also it would be great if every new construction home had solar added to it. If homes reduced power loads 30-50% that power could be used for new commercial development which could also utilize solar. But in this state home owners have to beg 65% of neighbors to allow them to have a solar panel on the roof.
As always, amusing listening to the IBJ Democrats. Solar is a magic pill and Nuclear Good!!
Nuclear energy used to be the coal boogeyman and going to kill everyone and just because the sun shines it doesn’t power your iPhone. There are positives and negatives to every energy source, including coal. Your magic unicorn “solar” requires infrastructure and natural resources to run. Diversification can have benefits but quit acting like a solar panel is the solution
This is what happens when you slow walk interconnections for the past ten years.
Too bad other countries can pull it off like Germany and in some cases have excess power China (solar) and Finland (nuclear).