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Fertility differences between groups can profoundly affect nations and upend conventional assumptions. Many social and political theories assert doctrines of inevitability. We are told so-called modern or enlightened attitudes will eventually prevail and become the norm. Groups that hold retrograde attitudes will shrink and eventually die out.
In Israel, so-called ultra-Orthodox Jews, self-identified as Haredi, are known for strict adherence to Jewish law. In 1948, the Haredi constituted about 1% of Israel’s population. However, because their birth rates exceed those of their more secular neighbors, the Haredi share of the population has risen rather dramatically. It reached 4% in 1980, 9.9% by 2009, and by the end of 2023 was 13.6% of the total population.
By 2030, the Haredi Jewish community is projected to make up 16% of the total population, and by 2065, a third of the Israeli population, including non-Jews. Far be it from two economists from the United States, an Episcopalian and a Mormon with Jewish ancestry, to judge Israeli civic life. However, we suspect this demographic reality will affect Israel, the Middle East and the world.
Fertility differences also affect the number of students, workers and retired people. In the United States, 4.32 million babies were born in 2007. In 2022, 3.67 million babies were born: about 650,000 fewer births, a 15% decline. Although international migration can have an influence, the U.S. 2025 population of 18-year-olds was pretty much a done deal at the end of 2007.
Unfortunately for colleges and universities, birth numbers from 18 years ago are crucial to college enrollment and finance. Fifteen percent fewer kids are available for the class of 2040 than for the class of 2025, which makes college and university planning a more challenging problem.
On the other hand, the U.S. population, which is 65 and over, is increasing dramatically. Though the percentage of the U.S. 65 and older population is lower than in many other developed countries, Americans 65 and over have grown five times faster than the overall U.S. population since 1920, increasing to 55.8 million in 2020. Fewer people in the working-age population and more older Americans mean that U.S. taxpayers may be unable to afford future Social Security benefits increases.
As we said a few weeks ago, the future of federal old-age benefits is not so much a matter of social justice and political will as simple arithmetic. As the great economist Thomas Sowell says, “Reality is not optional.”•
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Bohanon and Horowitz are professors of economics at Ball State University. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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