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We write this article before we know the winners and losers of the 2024 election. We are not predicting election outcomes or endorsing any candidates. We want to share a prescient insight of Georgetown professor Jason Brennan from 2016.
Brennan contrasts three types of voters: Hobbits, Hooligans and Vulcans. The name Hobbits comes from the book “The Lord of the Rings.” Hobbits don’t care to think much about the wider world or politics. They have no firm viewpoint or philosophy of government and follow their gut feelings, prejudices and intuitions. Hobbits might vote even though they are largely ignorant of who the candidates are or what issues they support. They are content to live with little thought or reflection on current or past events.
Hooligans are the “rabid sports fans of politics.” Hooligans have firm and inflexible political views. They can articulate and defend their positions but have difficulty explaining the opinions of those they disagree with. Their political identity is part of who they are. They view those who disagree with them as somewhere between misguided and stupid or evil. They selectively seek out information that confirms their own viewpoint and ignore information that contradicts it.
Like in Star Trek, Vulcans are ultra-rational beings who are knowledgeable about the candidates and issues. While they likely have a firm viewpoint and philosophy of government, they are willing to change their minds if the evidence is persuasive. They seek out multiple views and perspectives when they cast their votes. They are the model of exemplary voters.
Brennan noted that economist John Stuart Mill thought most voters were Hobbits but that political participation would make them more like Vulcans. Economist Joseph Schumpeter thought people were mostly Hobbits and Hooligans and that political participation would tend to turn them all into Hooligans. Brennan finds that Schumpeter was mostly right.
Brennan points out a myriad of social research that suggests we are all subject to biases and a burning desire to confirm our viewpoints. Unlike in our private affairs, where not looking both ways when crossing a street can be fatal, in politics, not being aware of the candidates and issues has little effect on the outcome.
Politics is emotionally driven, and political participation creates groups that dislike and distrust those with opposing opinions. In other words, political participation can make us mean and dumb Hooligans, which is unhealthy for us as individuals and for our nation. Sound familiar?•
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Bohanon and Horowitz are professors of economics at Ball State University. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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