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Marion County Democrats have overwhelming control of the City-County Council, but they’re leaving little to chance in the Nov. 7 election. They’ve fielded candidates in even some of the most lopsidedly-Republican districts.
After the May primary, it looked like Republican Derek Cahill would have an unchallenged path to victory in newly-constituted District 23 in GOP-heavy Perry Township.
But now Democrats have named their own candidate, adding IT business consultant Ryan Hughey to the ballot just ahead of the July 3 deadline.
Democrats now hold 19 of the council’s 25 seats, with five Republicans and one independent holding the others. Democrats hope to hang on to their supermajority, but Republicans say new council district maps give them a chance to pick up seats.
Cahill, 45, likely is the GOP’s strongest hope. President of the Perry Township Republican Club, he decided to run after the council redrew council maps and created the GOP district that Cahill resides in and contains no incumbents. Cahill said those circumstances are what persuaded him to run.
Still, he said he wasn’t surprised to learn he would have a competitor in November. “I welcome it and encourage it,” he said. “Everyone should have a vote.”
Hughey, 31, works for Marion County government. He said another council candidate, Democrat Jesse Brown, encouraged him to run, he told IBJ. Marion County Democratic Chair Myla Eldridge signed off on his candidacy.
It’s a longshot. An analysis from nonpartisan voter advocacy group Common Cause Indiana put the chances of a Democratic win in that district at 5%, with a predicted split of 57% Republicans and 43% Democrats.
But Marion County Democrats are hopeful that the deep blue of the city’s center is bleeding south.
“Under the leadership of Mayor [Joe] Hogsett and our Democrat-led City-County Council, Marion County continues to trend blue,” Eldridge said in a statement.
The will be Hughey’s first bid for public office. Before he decided to run, he said he didn’t even know there was a Perry Township Democratic Club and he believes that lack of knowledge more broadly suggests Democrats in the district don’t feel they have a voice.
He said the lack of Democratic candidates in Perry Township is “promoting apathy in the voter base.”
The Democrats also filled a ballot vacancy for District 21, where Republican Councilor Josh Bain is seeking reelection.
Phil Webster, 81, taught and coached baseball at Decatur Central High School for 46 years. The now-retired Democrat also sought a council seat in 2019 against Jason Holliday, but lost by 7 percentage points. Prior to that, Webster unsuccessfully attempted to unseat State Sen. Michael Young in 2016. He lost that race by nearly 18 percentage points.
That Decatur township district is also heavily Republican—the Common Cause analysis pegs the chance of a Democratic win at just 4%. But Webster told IBJ he’s hopeful that voters will buck the tradition.
The Republicans have also added a new candidate—real estate agent Mark Forcum—to run against incumbent Democratic Councilor Dan Boots to represent District 3. The Common Cause analysis puts that district at a 99% or more chance of a Democratic win.
Republicans expect some gains
In addition to the Cahill-Hughey race, Republicans see several other opportunities to pick up council seats.
“I think we have a real opportunity, obviously, not only to hold all of [our current seats], but to add a new one in that new district [in Perry Township]” Joe Elsener, chair of the Marion County Republican Party, told IBJ.
The GOP also has high hopes for two other redrawn districts that now lean Republican or are significantly more competitive.
District 19, where Democrat Frank Mascari is running for reelection, is evenly split between the two parties, according to the Common Cause analysis. He’ll face Republican Terry Trent in the fall.
District 17, where incumbent Democrat Jared Evans is running for reelection, has a 42% chance of a Democratic win, according to the report. He faces Republican Lisa Schmitz in November. Evans has been on the council since 2016 and represents the southwest side.
Elsener told IBJ he’s hopeful for other candidates, such as Natalie Goodwin, a staffer for former congresswoman Susan Brooks who is running against Gen Z Democratic candidate Nick Roberts to represent areas around Lawrence. The open seat is currently held by independent Councilor Ethan Evans, who decided against a reelection bid.
He also sees promise in the race between newly-selected Democrat Brienne Delaney—who unseated longtime incumbent Democrat Monroe Gray—and Republican Matt Hills, a veteran and business owner.
Both of these districts still lean Democratic, but not as heavily as most, according to the 2022 analysis. Having a strong mayoral candidate in businessman Jefferson Shreve also should help Republicans get elected to the council, Elsener said.
“I think having a really strong, dynamic, top of the ticket like Jefferson… that’s going to make it really competitive,” Elsener said. “I like to say ‘a rising tide lifts all boats,’ and that certainly will be a big help.”
Coasting towards victory
Some candidates won’t face challengers.
Running unopposed this fall are Democrats Leroy Robinson, Carlos Perkins, John Barth, Ron Gibson, Ali Brown, Crista Carlino, Vop Osili, and La Keisha Jackson. Republicans Paul Annee and Brian Mowery also do not have opponents.
The Libertarian Party is fielding candidates for districts 13 and 18: Elizabeth Glass and Mark Renholzberger. They will face Democrats Jesse Brown and Kristin Jones, respectively.
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