Derek Schultz: A quiet evolution?

This March, the Colts officially entered the NFL’s new season five years removed from their last playoff win and three from their last trip to the post-season. Under General Manager Chris Ballard, now commencing his eighth season at the helm, Indianapolis has just one playoff win and has yet to win the AFC South, historically one of the league’s weaker divisions and one the Colts previously owned, spanning the prime of Peyton Manning’s career in the 2000s up until Andrew Luck’s health fell off a cliff in the mid-2010s.

For a fan base that watched its favorite team essentially roll out of bed as perennial contenders, being bogged down in the mediocre goo of the NFL’s middle tier for the better part of the last seven seasons has led to impatience and frustration, with a healthy amount of ire being directed at Ballard.

The common refrains have centered on the Colts GM being too passive as a personnel head—afraid to go all in or make the big splash, both common sports buzz terms that excite fans in the offseason month: Ballard doesn’t spend enough draft capital on premium positions and hasn’t aggressively pursued premium free agents. He’s been too willing to keep the car in the middle lane, churning out eight- to 10-win seasons, instead of shifting to the left and slamming the gas pedal, like the division rival Houston Texans have done over the past few months.

If you glance at the surface of this current Colts offseason, you might see some justification in those complaints. The Colts’ “big” outside free-agent acquisition was aging backup quarterback Joe Flacco, and instead of jumping up the board for an elite wide receiver prospect like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Rome Odunze, Indy ultimately stayed put with the 15th overall selection in last week’s NFL Draft. However, if you look deeper and more closely examine what Ballard’s done to this point, you’ll see he is quietly evolving and venturing off the usual script.

Look no further than the newest Colts addition, UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, whom Ballard grabbed as the first defensive player off the NFL Draft board in Detroit. At the edge position, Ballard had previously bet big on athletic traits and long-term development over turnkey-type producers, a plan that has yielded middling (Kwity Paye) to minuscule (Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu) results.

While Latu still mostly fits the athletic profile of previous Colts edge prospects, he brings with him unprecedented college production to back it up. The unanimous All-American led the country in tackles for loss, winning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, as well as the Ted Hendricks Award, annually given to the nation’s best defensive end. Latu tabulated the most sacks (23.5) of any player from a Power Five program the last two seasons, generating the second-most quarterback pressures (126), and earning the top pass rusher grade from Pro Football Focus. Ballard has pegged him to produce immediately.

“We thought there were four or five really elite players [in the draft class], and he was one of them. We felt fortunate to get him,” Ballard said on draft night.

“I think he’s going to produce quickly as a rusher. This guy is a pretty polished product in terms of rushing. Of course, you’re going to have to learn, especially against tackles that are so good, and the protection schemes are so good, so that’ll be an adjustment for him, but he’s a smart kid. He’ll figure it out.”

Even with a productive pass rush that compiled the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (51) last season, Ballard knows the Colts need a premier edge to elevate the Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis group—all pretty good players, but none of whom cause opposing offensive coordinators any sleepless nights. Assuming Latu’s surgically repaired neck problems from early in his college career don’t flare up again, he’s expected to produce as a prominent piece of that unit the second he steps onto the field in September.

Another layer of strategy

After tabbing Latu in Round 1, the Colts also grabbed Texas wide receiver Adonai “AD” Mitchell with their second pick (59th overall). That’s two top-60 selections used at impact positions. Although no one in the team’s front office has come out and said this, both of those picks also seem to signify that the Colts aren’t going to sit around and wait for Paye or WR Alec Pierce, a second-round pick in the 2022 class, to break out. Draft analysts see Latu as the game-wrecker type rusher that Paye has yet to show himself to be, and Mitchell’s skill set projects him to become a home run/deep ball threat, which is a role Pierce has struggled to consistently produce in, albeit with substandard quarterback play his first two seasons.

The Colts could’ve gone for a tight end or a defensive back with either of those early picks, but Ballard surely realizes the team needs several difference-makers at edge and receiver for Indy to elevate from NFL purgatory.

Meanwhile, in free agency, Ballard didn’t go out and toss bags of cash at outside help like many fans have implored him to do, but the fact is, the Colts aggressively pursued and spent on free agents on a much larger scale than in the recent past. The Colts brought back every single notable in-house starter, committing $200 million to retaining frontline players like wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. ($71.5 million), cornerback Kenny Moore ($30 million) and defensive tackle Grover Stewart ($30.75 million). That’s not to mention extending defensive stalwarts like DeForest Buckner ($46 million) and Zaire Franklin ($31 million).

While Ballard doesn’t get credit for someone he didn’t sign, the Colts reportedly went hard after four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter, too, signaling that the Colts GM was willing to pay the premium for outside free agents beyond bargain-bin veterans. Not overspending on overpriced options from elsewhere, while building a healthy amount of cap space, allowed the Colts to keep everyone they wanted to keep.

Ballard’s retain-your-own philosophy has been criticized as these players, like their general manager, have earned individual praise absent of any tangible or noteworthy team success, but for those same critics shouting, “Win now,” doesn’t bringing back established veterans fit that exact mantra? Pittman, Moore, Stewart, et al., are in the prime of their careers, have been in Indy’s system, and are known commodities, unlike an outside free agent or draft pick. Those players were also at or near the top of the list among the candidates available at their respective positions this offseason.

Maintaining your core pieces while adding to it—an approach former Colts GM Bill Polian employed for years en route to a Hall of Fame career—is a defensible and sound strategy for Ballard to employ as his team looks to take the next step.

Proof will be in the pudding

Even with these tweaks to his process, the mandate for results remains the same for Ballard. Being the belle of the ball among the league media in April (and getting defended in columns like this one) is irrelevant if the Colts don’t generate any conversation in January. If Anthony Richardson hits at quarterback and any of these other bets Ballard placed on impact positions pays off, that conversation will undoubtedly change.

While he failed to land Hunter, push his chips in for an elite rookie receiver, or make any upgrades to an unproven defensive secondary, it appears Ballard has slowly evolved his team-building philosophy these past few months and grown from mistakes. And that growth points to positive things for next season, even if this Colts offseason hasn’t been as splashy as some had hoped.•

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From Peyton Manning’s peak with the Colts to the Pacers’ most recent roster makeover, Schultz has talked about it all as a sports personality in Indianapolis for more than 15 years. Besides his written work with IBJ, he’s active in podcasting and show hosting. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @Schultz975.