Hoosier voter turnout down, but higher than in 2012, 2016 elections

Fewer Hoosiers turned out to vote in November than they did during the pandemic-era 2020 presidential election, according to Indiana’s final numbers—but they bested ballot counts and turnout recorded in the two previous presidential elections.

Almost 3 million Indiana residents voted, or about 61% of those registered with the state.

That’s nearly 100,000 fewer Hoosier voices than in 2020, when turnout hit a high of 65%—but higher than the 2016 and 2012 elections.

Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis, called 2020 “an anomaly in many ways” but said it’s too soon to know the pandemic’s electoral impacts.

“We’ll have to have successive presidential elections to be able to confirm whether or not that was a blip in the radar because of genuinely unusual, once-in-a-century experiences,” she said.

But, she observed, Indiana—like other states—expanded voter access during the pandemic.

Officials delayed the 2020 primary election from May to June and allowed any voter to request a mail-in ballot, according to Vote 411’s Covid-19 election change tracker.

By the November general election however, Indiana reinstated its “excuse” system. Voters must qualify for one of a dozen reasons to obtain a mail-in ballot. But, the state kept a newly introduced online request option for mail-in ballot applications — previously, most voters had to mail their requests to their local election boards, WFYI reported.

“No doubt, when you make it easier for people to vote, we will see an increase,” Wilson said, though she noted that increases aren’t always substantial or immediate.

She offered voting center systems—in which Hoosiers can vote anywhere in their counties instead of being limited to one polling place—and the increased emphasis on early in-person voting as other examples of greater voter access.

The reason behind the drop could be simpler, per Wilson: uninspired voters.

She said there was “a substantial part of the population” that voted in 2020 but refrained from turning out this year.

That could be a disinterest in the candidates, as it was President-elect Donald Trump’s third straight time on the ballot and would’ve been a repeat for outgoing President Joe Biden had he not dropped out just before the election.

That could also be a sense of futility. Indiana has few competitive elections, with Democrats dominating elected positions in a few areas and Republicans controlling the rest.

“I think, overwhelmingly, voter turnout is low because people don’t care about the elections, because it feels like it’s a foregone conclusion,” Wilson. “If you tell me where you live, and I can pretty much predict which party is going to be in power.”

Voting trends

Turnout dropped by 6% statewide compared with 2020.

Seventy-six counties reported drops, but the percentage change hit double digits in Hendricks and Vermillion counties. Just 16 counties had no changes or even experienced increased turnout; Madison County topped the list with a 7% increase in turnout.

Marion County recorded, by far, the largest drop in sheer numbers—almost 37,000 fewer residents voted this year compared with 2020. Madison County reported the largest gross increase, with nearly 4,000 more ballots cast.

Election Day turnout this year was almost 200,000 voters higher than in 2020, when absentee voting soared—but was hundreds of thousands of votes lower than in 2016 and 2012. Indiana categorizes both mail-in ballots and early in-person votes as “absentee” in its data.

Wilson said early in-person voting was considered a way to help people unable to vote day-of, but now may be cannibalizing Election Day vote totals.

“I would expect what we see in 2024 to continue, … where we aren’t going to have massive numbers of people take advantage of early voting that wouldn’t have otherwise voted,” she said. “No, they’re people that would vote (on Election Day), but they’re using early voting because they have the opportunity to do so.”

The Indiana Capital Chronicle is an independent, nonprofit news organization that covers state government, policy and elections.