Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 strength on approach to Florida

Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.

Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached extreme levels—its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.

The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The storm has explosively developed over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to climate change.

Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the calendar year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate.

Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm—despite some weakening—is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.

Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet—including in Tampa Bay.

Depending on Milton’s exact track, Tampa could find itself in the most dangerous part of the hurricane. The vulnerable coastal city could suffer billions of dollars in damage in a worst-case-scenario track, which is a possible outcome. Some neighborhoods would be entirely inundated and inaccessible. Ongoing evacuations are expected to be the most expansive in Florida since Hurricane Irma struck in 2017.

It’s important to note that subtle shifts of only 5 to 10 miles in track will have an enormous bearing on surge outcomes. While it’s impossible to outline exactly who will see the worst surge at this point, a devastating surge is virtually a certainty somewhere along Florida’s west coast.

A storm surge watch is in effect from the southern tip of the Everglades to the mouth of the Suwanee River in the Big Bend. That includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor—the latter a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in late September 2022.

In addition, Milton will bring destructive winds—perhaps gusting over 100 mph at the coastline—as well as flooding rains and the risk of a few tornadoes. Hurricane watches span the southern part of Florida’s Big Bend, ravaged by Helene less than two weeks ago, to just south of Marco Island.

Widespread power outages are probable in Florida’s interior and even as far away as the state’s east coast and could affect cities such as Orlando and Daytona Beach—in addition to Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota.

Late Monday morning, the storm was centered about 130 miles west-northwest of the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and 720 miles southwest of Tampa, headed to the east-southeast at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn to the northeast Tuesday.

On satellite, the storm also exhibited an ominous “enveloped eyewall lightning” signature. Hurricanes only produce lightning when they’re strengthening, usually quickly. The entire eyewall, or innermost ring of ferocious winds, has been sparking hundreds of lightning strikes—a portent of a top-tier storm. The Hurricane Hunters even encountered hail when entering the eyewall from the northwest.

Milton is expected to affect some of the same areas that experienced a destructive surge from Helene, representing a major setback for recovery efforts. Parts of Florida’s west coast already saw a 5- to 7-foot storm surge and are in the process of removing debris and sand left over from Helene.

What are the areas most threatened by this storm?

The Tampa Bay to Fort Myers corridor is at greatest risk from the storm. Milton will be arriving from the west, a highly unusual trajectory for hurricanes. Since 1850, there are no records of any Category 2 or greater hurricanes originating from the west and passing within 60 miles of Tampa. Milton’s trajectory will prime it to be a major surge producer.

Surge will be a hazard near and south of the center, but could be an issue along much of Florida’s west coast. Where the southern eyewall makes landfall, a surge of 8 to 12 feet is possible.

Within the eyewall, winds gusting over 100 mph at the coastline are possible. Within a county or two along the coast, gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely. Even far inland, places such as Lakeland and Orlando might see gusts of 75 mph—maybe more. That will result in widespread power outages. Based on current modeling, winds of 70 mph might reach all the way south to Lake Okeechobee.

Heavy rains are ongoing across South Florida now due to the moisture preceding Milton’s arrival. That moisture is pooling along a stalled front. Milton itself will bring a widespread 6 to 8 inches of rain, with localized 12-inch totals, across central and north central Florida. Some inland flooding is possible.

When and where will landfall probably occur? When will conditions deteriorate and become dangerous?

The most likely landfall location is between New Port Richey, about 40 miles north of Tampa Bay, and North Port or Cape Coral, Fla., just to the north of Fort Myers, but shifts in the track are possible. It’s important to remember that hurricane impacts reach far beyond the center. The most dangerous conditions from wind and surge will be found near and just south of where the center crosses the coast.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday. Heavy rains will become more widespread, but the worst of the winds will probably hold off until Wednesday. Especially by midday Wednesday, an abrupt uptick in destructive winds is probable near where the storm comes ashore. The worst winds will come only two or three hours before Milton’s landfall and will arrive abruptly.

How large and intense will the storm be at landfall?

Milton is a small storm. Hurricane-force winds only reach outward some 30 miles from the center. Small, compact storms are more sensitive to fluctuations in strength, which is why Milton has been able to strengthen so fast.

The storm will be expanding as it interacts with nontropical weather systems and begins to feel the effects of the mid-latitude jet stream. Even though maximum winds will come down Tuesday night and Wednesday, the area affected by hurricane-force winds may triple. That will increase the area susceptible to downed trees, wires and power outages.

Uncertainty is unusually high with regard to Milton’s landfall strength. Even if the storm weakens to a Category 3, as predicted by the Hurricane Center, it will be coming down from a Category 5. And if weakening is more gradual than expected, a storm stronger than a Category 3 can’t be ruled out.

Dry air near the coast of Florida could also weaken the storm more than models suggest, but that is a low likelihood.

Could areas affected by Helene be hit again?

Computer models forecast Milton to generally to follow a course farther south than Helene, which should spare the Southern Appalachians from serious impacts. Little or no rain or wind from the storm should reach the western Carolinas.

However, Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Helene, including parts of the Big Bend and much of the west coast.

The potential storm surge generated by Milton in the Tampa Bay Area could be twice as large as Helene’s. However, this worst-case surge scenario could be avoided if the storm veers to the south or north.

If Milton makes landfall north of Tampa Bay, it could mean another blow for the Big Bend area while also producing some heavy rain and strong winds in southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, which were affected by Helene. However, Milton’s effects on Georgia will probably be less severe than Helene’s.