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As a subscriber you can listen to articles at work, in the car, or while you work out. Subscribe NowIndiana University demographers released projections last week that show the state’s population growth cratering until it hits near-zero growth by the 2050s. In fact, more than two-thirds of Indiana’s 92 counties will see losses in population over the next 30 years, according to the estimates from the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. This can be explained by a grim but relatively simple phenomenon: The number of deaths in the state will begin surpassing the number of births in the 2040s. At that point, migration from other areas will account for all of Indiana’s population growth. Meager population growth would have serious repercussions for our labor force and economy, putting pressure on officials across the state to make Indiana as appealing a place to live as possible.
The counties with large cities will be the exceptions. The 11-county Indianapolis metro area is expected to add residents at a relatively robust clip over several decades. In fact, the metro area is projected to hit about 2,497,000 residents by 2050—an increase of nearly 405,000 from 2020. And the state’s five fastest-growing counties will be suburban Indianapolis counties. The question now is, “What should public officials on the city, county and state level do with this information?” Matt Kinghorn, the principal researcher on the IBRC study, is our guest this week to break down the numbers, explain what’s behind these expected trends, dig into the challenges facing the state and provide a preview for a tale of two different Indianas.
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Urbanization could help us break the GOP supermajority thankfully
Or, which I think is more likely: They’ll just become even more brazen with gerrymandering. They’ll come up with shapes that mathematicians didn’t even know were possible.
@Channing they already did that with the 5th Congressional District. In 2020 Dems came within 5 points. They removed the Indy portion of the district and packed more blue areas into the 7th and made the 5th a safe GOP seat.
Yes Channing maybe they can take lessons from the lawmakers in Illinois because they seem to have gerrymandering down perfect.
Regressive policies from the Statehouse — micromanagement of urban issues, abortion, vindictive responses from AG office, outrageous congressional representatives, for example — do nothing to improve the image of Indiana as a desirable place for many, growth notwithstanding. Shrinking population in out counties — is this really surprising? And how do Indiana non-metro counties compare to those in other states. Should Abbot bus some migrants desiring work to Indiana?
Because who really wants to live in rural Indiana these days?
Indiana is governed by the people who represent the parts of Indiana that no one wants to live in.
My favorite will always be Jim Pressel, a homebuilder from a town (Rolling Prairie) with no stoplight who’s managed to be put in charge of the Roads and Transportation committee. Little wonder he sits there and thinks Indiana has plenty of money for roads, and is one of those dreaming of ways to collect money from those durn people who drive across Indiana without stopping. Because, apparently, that’s cheaper and easier than giving them reasons to stop.
When presented with a city that aggressively used bonds to grow to be a beacon that’s drawing people from both in and out of the state (Carmel), what was the response from legislators? Changed the rules so no other city could do it.
You can make the case that Carmel, yeah, probably went overboard. But the response from the state level is rather clear … if any part of the state dares lift itself up, it’s not to support it. It’s to grab it and drag it back down with everyone else and punish it for dreaming.
Joe B. Great comment. They use an arcane way to fund roads. Every road is funded with “center line miles”. Each road is measured down the middle regardless if it a four land, six lane road. No wonder Indy’s roads are awful. I am sure Jim Pressel doesn’t give a dame even though Indy and the surrounding counties are the economic engine for the state.
Remember, these “leaders” are the same folks who think that to make Indiana desirable all they have to do is:
— cut more taxes,
— build more highways to/through nowhere,
— hand out $1million per job for Amazon data centers that will keep Indiana burning coal, and
— attract more $18/hour warehouse jobs.
The same NIMBY focused citizens and leaders who try to stop all growth will one day be the same people wondering why their jobs / incomes are in jeopardy as the states financial outlook suffers.
Ha!! Sounds like a bunch of leftists who want to move to thriving Illinois where you can kill babies at will and “tax the rich” till they all leave!!