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Indiana Democrats had touted gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick as the party’s most competitive candidate in years. They branded her as the “common sense” change candidate and attempted to target moderate GOP voters in part by leveraging her former affiliation as a Republican.
And late in the race, that seemed like it might be working. The Democratic Governors Association put $1 million into the race, and Republicans started running attack ads.
But in the end, McCormick lost by the type of wide margin that has become the norm for Democrats running for statewide office. In fact, the Associated Press race called the governor’s race for Republican Mike Braun at the same time as two of the most uncompetitive races in the state: Donald Trump in the presidential race and Jim Banks in the U.S. Senate race.
Democrats who spoke to IBJ attributed the party’s disappointing performance on Tuesday to a lack of organization within the party infrastructure, a focus on moderate candidates in an increasingly fractured Democratic Party and difficulties overcoming straight-ticket voting.
The results were “devastating,” according to Kip Tew, a former state Indiana Democratic Party chairman.
And Democrats acknowledge the party’s showing in Indiana and nationwide is raising questions about how to proceed moving forward.
“There’s no question that Tuesday’s results were a gut punch for our party at the national and state levels,” Indiana Democratic Party Chair Mike Schmuhl said in a party newsletter Thursday. “We will need a bigger coalition of people in our state to work together to build more Democratic power at every level of government in our state for the future.”
Disorganization turns to disengagement
A major concern for Democrats is misalignment within the party at all levels—county, state and national, several Democrats told IBJ. A major goal, they said, is to improve all-around organizing to better mobilize voters and provide targeted messaging that resonates.
Lower voter turnout for Democrats, while part of a national fracturing on issues, seemed to trickle down and have an impact on voter enthusiasm when not countered by coordinated get-out-the-vote efforts.
Overall turnout in Marion County, a reliable blue bastion, fell compared with 2020. That hit Democratic candidates especially hard: In 2020, Biden won nearly 50,000 more votes in four years ago in Marion County than Harris did this year—1.6 percentage points worse than Biden. Meanwhile, Trump won 20,000 votes more than he did in 2020.
Democratic strategist Elise Shrock said voter turnout can fall over time in places like Marion County where there is limited get-out-the-vote messaging, in part because Democrats almost always win. And without a big turnout in urban areas, Indiana Democrats can’t overcome the votes Republicans rack up in other areas of the state.
The Marion County party needs to set turnout goals and then organize and fundraise around meeting that benchmark, Shrock said.
“Marion County and its low voter turnout is a real disservice to the rest of the state,” she said. “We could make a huge difference, or we could be really helpful to the rest of the state if we could empower our voters to turn out in greater numbers.”
Having Trump at the top of the Republican ticket also did not help Democrats in down-ballot races. Tew, who chaired the party in 2004 and served as former President Barack Obama’s Indiana campaign chair in 2008, said the top of the ticket during this hyper-partisan time dragged down Democrats running statewide. That’s especially true, he said, because Indiana is one of a handful of states that allows straight-ticket ballots, which means voters can select all candidates from one party with the push of a button.
“The Trump era continues,” Tew told IBJ Wednesday afternoon. “I’m absolutely mystified as to why people think that person ought to be running this country.”
But Indiana voters did, and by a large margin. Trump received 600,000 more votes than Kamala Harris in Indiana
Overcoming Republican voting habits, Shrock said, will require a shakeup of how the Democratic Party uses its resources and crafts its messaging. It’s a “chicken and the egg” scenario, she said, where messaging and fundraising need to go hand-in-hand. Those decisions need to be rooted in data as well, she said, instead of trying to rely on “campaign astrology” or anecdotal cues.
“It feels like we’ve been in a rebuilding year for a while,” Shrock said. “We’re going to need to break out of a playbook that is a bit tired.”
Changing strategies
Rumblings have already started in Indiana Democratic circles about who to blame for the outcome—which puts Schmuhl, the party chair, in the hot seat.
The party’s leadership going forward is up to the Indiana Democratic State Central Committee, which will meet in March to elect the state party’s chair, vice chair, secretary and treasurer, according to the party bylaws.
“Where we go in terms of leadership, that’s yet to be decided,” Indiana Democratic Party spokesman Sam Barolga said on election night.
Reuters has reported that Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison will not seek another term.
Lara Beck, a Democratic communications strategist, said that it’s natural for people to want accountability after a loss but that critics should take a breath and step away from the results for a moment. She said leading the minority party in Indiana isn’t an easy job.
“It’s kind of like being a mom. Nobody’s ever happy with you,” she told IBJ.
Tew said it’s too soon to know what reforms are needed in the party. But he said Democrats need to recognize that there might not be enough middle-ground voters to sway an election—as evidenced by the failure of the party’s moderate gubernatorial ticket to gain traction.
Shrock said the party needs to reach out to rural voters and those without a college degree—
Outsized populations in Indiana that used to vote for consistently for Democrats but have moved right in recent years.
“We’re going to need to be more creative with who’s at the table,” Schrock said. “We need to be talking to lots of other communities and incorporating them at the table, not just in an election year.”
The silver lining
While this election didn’t provide the results Democrats wanted, they largely didn’t cede ground either.
Democrat Destiny Wells, the best-performing Democrat on the statewide ticket with 41.2%, was within a percentage point of the Democrat who ran in 2020. McCormick, who ended up with 41.1% of the vote, was able to rebound from Woody Myers’ 32% in 2020.
And Democrats see hope in results in suburban counties. According to a New York Times map, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks and Boone counties were among the few places in the country where voting shifted left from 2022 to 2024, rather than right.
Democrats will need to use 2025—when there are no elections in Indiana—to rebuild the party with an eye on how Trump, Braun and Lt. Gov.-elect Micah Beckwith will governor over the next few years and how the party can use that to its advantage.
“That will give some clarity moving forward,” she said.
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