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If the long lines outside polling centers are any indication, Hoosiers are keen to take advantage of early voting this election season.
While statewide numbers are down from 2020’s pandemic election, early voting is far outpacing 2016—aligning with the uptick seen across several states. Political analysts say the renewed wave is due to a blend of changing attitudes and the convenience of the voting method.
As of the end of the day Tuesday, nearly 860,000 people across the state have voted early in person compared to 454,000 in 2016. Mail-in ballots are also up with 159,000 Hoosiers returning their ballots so far; 104,000 did so by this point eight years ago.
That means 21% of registered voters have cast their ballots.
The election “is no longer a day,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “It genuinely is election season.”
Republicans have been turning out in larger numbers nationwide since Republican Donald Trump shifted his position on early voting and called the method safe. He is urging Republicans to vote however they can. In 2020, he had sworn off early voting.
Republicans “realize that people are doing it and that it’s now a part of the process,” said Chad Kinsella, director of the Bowen Center for Public Affairs at Ball State University. “And so, you know, why fight it?”
Indiana does not provide party registration data when it reports turnout, which makes it difficult to know whether more Democrats or Republicans are turning out to vote early.
As of Wednesday in Marion County, 78,805 residents had voted early. That’s on par with the 2020 turnout five days before the election, which had 77,402 people turn up. The county saw just more 130,000 residents in total show up early to vote in 2020 and 42,751 in 2016.
The county also has had 22,687 mail-in absentee ballots returned.
The Marion County Election Board voted on Thursday not to expand the time early voting is open by two hours Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The push for an extension was in response to significant wait times observed throughout the county.
Hamilton County reported 68,726 in-person early voters and about 17,000 returned absentee ballots as of Wednesday. During the pandemic election, the county had 98,465 walk-in early voters and 44,376 mail-in voters. The last typical election in 2016 had 42,132 early voters and 11,463 mail-in absentee ballot voters.
A variety of reasons
The increase in early voting also doesn’t necessarily mean the election will have a surge in totals, however. It could mark a change in when people vote rather than whether they vote.
Hoosiers are demonstrating that they are warming up to early voting, Kinsella said. It’s an ideological shift, he said, in large part due to convenience.
“A lot of human nature is very basic,” he said. “People have found and continue to find that [early voting is] a matter of convenience and easier to do across Indiana and across the country. They’re embracing that.”
Many voters got a taste of the convenience when the pandemic prompted early voting expansions in 2020. Last presidential election, about 906,000 people in Indiana went to the polls early, and 445,000 people took advantage of expanded mail-in ballot options.
Trump’s flip-flop has also triggered Republicans in Indiana and nationally to re-embrace early voting. For example, Sen. Mike Braun, the Trump-endorsed Republican running for governor, voted early himself and encouraged others to do so as well in a social media video.
Wilson said that absolutely has affected people’s attitudes about voting. Now that the Republican Party at large is saying the voting method is safe, she said, it’s likely easing voters’ election integrity concerns. It could ultimately be a turning point, she said, that could cause more voters to take advantage of early voting in the future.
However, it’s possible that some Hoosiers voters haven’t gotten the message. Indiana is not a swing state, meaning targeted get-out-the-vote messaging isn’t as concentrated. The state also tends to lean more traditional, Wilson said, so there is a baked-in resistance to change and new technologies.
“Those older voters, they’re also more likely to be your sustained political participants who are the 45% of the population that vote in every election,” she said. “They probably do still exercise caution. They’re probably still, quite frankly, concerned.”
Hoosiers have four days left to vote before Election Day on Tuesday.
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