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Last time I sat down to write this column, Joe Biden was still the Democratic presidential candidate. No one had tried to assassinate Donald Trump. There were no viral memes about sofas or childless cat ladies.
It took a little more than a fortnight for the national political landscape to shift in ways we never imagined.
Here in Indiana, things have been similarly topsy-turvy. Both major parties had contested races at their state conventions, one of which resulted in the selection of a candidate for lieutenant governor who was not the gubernatorial candidate’s pick.
All of this is to say—with less than a hundred days to go before the general election—that this is not a year to take anything for granted in politics.
In the run-up to November, here are three things for political observers to watch: who’s registering to vote, what issues the candidates are focused on and which way independents are breaking.
The midterm elections saw record voter registration and turnout from millennials and Gen Z, well over half of whom are eligible to vote. They’re excited to cast their ballots based on the things they care about, and those things are very different from older voters’ priorities.
A survey following the 2022 election found Gen Z voters most likely to say abortion and women’s rights were their top issues. Voters in older generations cited the economy or inflation. If more young voters get registered and show up to vote this year than in past cycles, that could portend a shift in the state’s political dynamic.
Also important: Gen Z voters overwhelmingly get their information about politics from non-traditional sources like social media and the internet. Candidates who want to motivate them have to ensure they are reaching them where they are.
That brings us to the issue of issues.
It’s worth noting that the statewide Democratic ticket is almost entirely female, and the statewide Republican ticket is all male. The three female candidates’ websites prominently feature reproductive rights as a top issue, and the ticket will be led by Kamala Harris, who also has prioritized the issue.
A statewide poll released in June revealed that 64% of Hoosiers believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 58% believe the state’s current abortion ban is too restrictive. It’s unclear whether and how those numbers will translate in November, but the issue isn’t going away.
Finally, we should be looking at independent voters—not just whether they are trending red or blue, but also how many people are identifying as independent to begin with.
Nationally, the pool of self-identified independent voters has grown from 31% in 2004 to 43% at the end of last year, according to a Gallup survey released in January. A record-low 27% respectively identify as Democrats and Republicans.
What people say to a pollster doesn’t always track with how they vote, but it does signify an openness to considering ideas and candidates from both parties. In a deep-red state like Indiana, any movement of self-identified Republicans to self-identified independents would be noteworthy.
I learned a long time ago not to make public predictions in politics, and I have no intention of breaking that rule this year other than to say it’s already been a wild ride, and it’s not even Labor Day yet.•
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Chartier is a lifelong Indianapolis resident and owner of Mass Ave Public Relations.
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