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As Texans grapple with the daunting task of nearly doubling their power grid capacity, Hoosiers in Indiana should take note. The recent report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is more than a local concern—it’s a harbinger of the broader challenges facing America’s energy infrastructure.
ERCOT’s president and CEO, Pablo Vegas, in a recent testimony to the Texas Senate Business and Commerce Committee, painted a stark picture of the future. The demand on the grid is surging, driven by the state’s booming economy and the rise of energy-intensive industries such as artificial intelligence data centers and cryptocurrency mining. The numbers are staggering: ERCOT’s capacity, currently at 85,000 megawatts, is projected to nearly double to 150,000 megawatts by 2030 to keep up with this explosive growth.
Both Texas and Georgia have recently updated their 2030 energy-capacity projections due to increased economic projects, reflecting the states’ evolving energy landscape. In Indiana, our state’s utilities appear to suggest that everything is under control, despite recent warnings from Indiana’s grid operators, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (called MISO) and Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (called PJM) about the dire need for additional power supply in light of Indiana’s recently announced economic projects that require more power than the state’s largest manufacturers.
Indiana has experienced a record-breaking economic boom, with the first five months witnessing the initiation of new capital expenditure projects worth $27.1 billion. Given this rapid development, it’s reasonable to question what Indiana’s energy needs will be by 2030.
The reports from the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission suggest a belief that the state’s record economic development will not significantly impact energy demand, as its projections show minimal growth. On the other hand, MISO and PJM have indicated that the demand for energy is growing rapidly. This suggests that there might be a discrepancy between the IURC’s projections and the actual energy demand trends observed by electric grid operators.
The IURC, MISO and PJM did not provide specific numbers for energy growth by 2030. However, given the significant economic development and the trends indicated by grid operators across the country, it’s reasonable to expect Indiana’s energy demand will increase substantially by 2030.
For Indiana, the lessons are clear. The energy policies and investments we make today will determine our ability to power tomorrow’s economy. Indiana can look to Texas as a case study of the importance of proactive energy planning.
The Lone Star State’s response to its grid’s needs—a mix of natural-gas generation supported by the Texas Energy Fund and a push for new generation—offers a blueprint for Indiana. Diversifying our energy portfolio with a combination of fossil fuels and renewables while also investing in energy efficiency and grid modernization could position us to meet future demands without sacrificing reliability.
Moreover, Texas’ experience serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of underestimating growth. As Indiana continues to attract new industries, we must ensure our energy infrastructure can keep pace. This means not only stopping premature retirements of fossil-fuel base load facilities and expanding capacity but also embracing innovative technologies like small nuclear reactors.
The conversation happening in Texas today is one Indiana needs to have as well. It’s a conversation about foresight, investment and, ultimately, securing an energized future for all Hoosiers. Let’s take the lessons from our neighbors to heart and act with the urgency and vision that our energy future demands.•
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Ford is president of Reliable Energy Inc., a trade association formed in 2020 by representatives of Alliance Coal and Hallador Energy.
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If you are using ERCOTs plan as a road map for Indiana, you need to look at a little history to know you have picked a failure. Having worked in the power industry for a dozen years, I know that Texas operates by different rules than the rest of the US and the Republican lead hands off regulatory environment resulted in a spectacularly deadly grid meltdown just a few years ago. Texas is not the place you want to use as an example on how to run the grid.
If you want to find a place to focus policy it should be at the federal level. Indiana is not going to fix the grid problem by itself. There are two pieces that need to be fixed, transmission distribution, and based load electrical production. Ohio has implemented regulations that has slashed baseload production capacity and because the grid is a regional entity, what happens in Ohio affects Indiana. The current problem with transmission distribution has to do with the years long process it takes to get new projects approved. Most of that problem is not a state problem.
Oh, I do agree that some state policies do make a difference. Ohio’s deregulation and uncoupling of where you buy your electricity versus who you pay for distribution, created the mess where there’s lack of generation capacity in the state. Texas has the same deregulated policy, and that was part of what caused the meltdown a few years ago. Ohio is just luckier to be part of PJM and not ERCOT.
Also, if you’re thinking that state regulations will somehow bring back coal your’e either a dreamer or a Republican. No sane multinational bank will ever loan a penny to a coal project.