Mark Montieth: Lucky No. 7? Pacers’ options are endless for next week’s draft

So here we are again, the Pacers holding an intriguing but not exceptional selection that could bring a significant player in next week’s NBA draft.

Last year, it was the sixth overall selection. This time around, it’s the seventh, which reflects a minute measure of regular-season progress. You never know. They could land a future hall of famer from there. It’s happened a few times. Or they could bring in a future bust. That’s happened more than a few times.

The only certainty is that Thursday promises to be an eventful evening for the Pacers, potentially one of the most significant in franchise history because of the menu of opportunities that awaits them. They also own the 26th and 29th picks in the first round via trades and the 32nd and 55th in the second round.

President of Basketball Operations Kevin Pritchard has wisely stated he has no desire to bring in five rookies next season. Hiring that many newcomers would be nearly as chaotic as giving birth to quintuplets. At least one trade is inevitable, and two or three are possible.

The options are endless. Package two or more picks to move up in the draft order, perhaps. Attach one or two to a trade of a current player to sweeten the pot, maybe. Beyond all the variants of having five draft picks, the Pacers also have money to spend. They could be as much as $30 million under the salary cap after July 1, which would enable them to sign a significant free agent or trade a player for one with a higher salary.

All in all, it’s as if they have pockets full of cash and a stack of gift cards at their disposal. But while it might seem an embarrassment of riches, it’s one they “earned” by suffering through three consecutive losing seasons without a playoff appearance.

Surplus is often squandered, however, so the totality of what the Pacers do with all their assets will have a major impact on both their immediate and long-range futures. It’s not hyperbole, in fact, to say it could be the most influential off-season in franchise history simply because of the unprecedented volume of opportunities to improve.

For Pritchard, it’s manna from heaven. He was an active dealer when he ran Portland’s basketball operations from 2007-2010 and hasn’t shied from making bold moves with the Pacers, either. He has a rash of options to play with.

“Quite frankly, I’m a little itchy,” he said at a postseason news conference.

Most of the focus will be on that seventh pick, although it’s certainly possible it will be packaged in a trade of some sort. Fans hope to land a major contributor, perhaps a future all-star, their optimism boosted by last year’s selection of Ben Mathurin at No. 6. One season in, Mathurin has the look of a front-office victory. He was a first team all-rookie selection, the first Pacer to achieve that honor since Rik Smits in 1989, despite playing mostly off the bench. He also was the second-leading scorer among all rookies (16.7) and brought a desperately needed macho element to what is mostly a you-can-date-my-daughter kind of team.

History says nothing should be assumed, though.

Going back to 1950, when the NBA conducted its first draft, the sixth spot has produced three Hall of Famers (including Larry Bird), 15 players selected to an all-star team and a few others of all-star caliber. That means about 22% of the players taken sixth have turned out to be successful picks. Mathurin likely will boost that percentage a fraction.

The seventh spot, quite logically, has a similar history. It has been the launching pad for four Hall of Famers—George Yardley (1950), John Havlicek (1962), Bernard King (1977) and Chris Mullin (1985). Steph Curry (2009) is a lock to join the group. A dozen “sevens” in all have been chosen for the all-star game. Denver’s Jamal Murray (2016) likely will become another, or he at least fits into that group.

If nothing else, the seventh spot has produced some “interesting” players, especially for Indiana fans. IU’s Quinn Buckner and Eric Gordon emerged from that slot. So did Vinnie Johnson, nicknamed “The Microwave” for being a scorer who heated up quickly off the bench. So did Pat Riley, who has won championships as a player, coach and executive. All had long NBA careers; Gordon is still having one.

The Pacers have drafted seventh only once, in 1989, but it didn’t go well. George McCloud was listed as 6 feet, 8 inches when he was drafted but was more like 6 feet, 6 inches. He came up short in other ways, too. Because he had played some point guard at Florida State—a rarity for a player of that size in that era—he was inevitably compared to Lakers guard Magic Johnson, who was coming off a season in which he was voted both league MVP and Finals MVP.

“Think about that. We just got a 6-8 point guard,” coach Dick Versace said on draft night, with a mixture of awe and disbelief. General Manager Donnie Walsh alluded to Johnson that night, and McCloud said he patterned his game after Johnson.

The Pacers quickly realized McCloud wasn’t magic—or even a point guard—but stuck with him for four seasons. He had some big games but never averaged more than 7.2 points. Injuries were a major problem, including a sprained ankle incurred while standing up awkwardly after completing a telephone call. He also was emotionally rocked by the loss of his mother during his second season and then his father’s suicide a few months later.

Making matters worse for the Pacers, he went on to play much better for other teams. After a season in Italy, he returned to the NBA and showed what the Pacers had seen in him originally. He averaged 18.9 points in the 1995-96 season for Dallas and averaged 22 points while hitting a combined 8-of-17 three-pointers in two games against the Pacers. He was runner-up in the voting for most improved player that season and wound up playing 13 NBA seasons, mostly as a forward.

McCloud stands tall (but not all the way up to 6 feet, 8 inches) today as an example of the challenge of the draft. When should a team give up on a selection who hasn’t brought immediate rewards? The NBA is full of productive players who merely needed more time. Portland, for example, gave up on teenage draftee Jermaine O’Neal after four seasons and traded him to the Pacers, for whom he became a six-time all-star.

In other words, you not only have to know what card to draw, you have to know whether to hold it or fold it in the face of adversity.

Only 16% of the players drafted seventh have become NBA all-stars, although a few others are of that caliber or will be, eventually. That’s down from the 22% who did so out of the sixth spot in the draft. The Pacers beat those odds a year ago by drafting Mathurin. To do so again shouldn’t be taken lightly.

The Pacers don’t have a history of lottery luck when it comes to moving up in the order. They famously lost a coin flip for Ralph Sampson in 1983 and came up one pulled-envelope-out-of-a-hopper short of landing Patrick Ewing in 1985. The only time in their history they moved up significantly from the draft position they earned with their won-loss record was in 1988, when they had the second-best record among the 13 lottery teams but wound up with the second overall pick. They took Smits, who was essential to their playoff success in the following decade and finished his 12-season career as their second all-time leading scorer.

Devoid good luck, they’ve had to make good decisions with their lottery picks, and mostly they have. McCloud and Tyler Hansbrough (2009) didn’t work out as hoped. Several others, however, turned out to be real finds: Chuck Person, fourth in 1986, was rookie of the year. Paul George, 10th in 2010, became a perennial all-star. Myles Turner, 10th in 2015, has ranged from solid to special and is coming off his best season. Chris Duarte, 13th in 2021, showed genuine promise as a rookie before floundering through an injury-plagued season. And then Mathurin.

And now what? The Pacers will try their luck and skill again in the NBA’s spin of the talent wheel next week. Whatever happens, it will be an interesting study in personnel management. And vital to their future well-being.•

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Montieth, an Indianapolis native, is a longtime newspaper reporter and freelance writer. He is the author of the books “Passion Play: Coach Gene Keady and the Purdue Boilermakers” and “Reborn: The Pacers and the Return of Pro Basketball to Indianapolis.”