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As I write this, Israel is deciding how to retaliate against Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack.
How did we get here? I addressed some of the historical issues in my June 11, 2021, IBJ column, “Middle East conflict requires two-state solution.” The more immediate answer begins with Oct. 7, which sparked the current war in Gaza and the armed conflict between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran.
Oct. 7, 2023, was Israel’s 9/11. It was the deadliest attack on Israel since its founding in 1948 and the deadliest single day for Jews since the Holocaust. The multi-pronged, well-planned surprise attack by Hamas killed over 1,200 people in the most brutal ways. The victims were mainly Jewish Israelis, but some Arab-Muslim Israelis, foreign nationals and dual citizens, including Americans, were also killed that day. Another 5,000 were wounded, and many were sexually assaulted.
Hamas also kidnapped about 240 hostages and took them back to Gaza. The hostages ranged in age from octogenarians to a 9-month-old baby. Today, about 100 hostages remain in Gaza, with some presumed dead.
Hamas rejects Israel’s right to exist, vows to turn “every inch of Palestine” (including 1948 Israel) into an Islamic state, and has used terrorism, including suicide bombings, to indiscriminately kill Jews for over 30 years.
Israel responded to its 9/11 by vowing to destroy Hamas and invading Gaza. Hamas has run Gaza since 2007, and it lives, fights and fires its rockets from within and from underneath Gaza’s densely packed civilian population. Israel’s heavy shelling and airstrikes, along with intense house-to-house fighting, have led to over 40,000 Palestinian deaths, about two-thirds of whom are non-combatants. Most of Gaza’s 2 million civilians are internally displaced due to the war, and in going after Hamas and its tunnels, Israel has damaged or destroyed much of Gaza’s infrastructure. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to fight and hold hostages.
Oct. 7 was a spectacular failure of Israeli intelligence and leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the most extreme coalition government in Israel’s history, had taken his eye off the ball in Gaza in order to devote attention and resources to expanding settlements in the West Bank and to undermining Israel’s independent judiciary at home. One day, there will be a political reckoning, and he will go down as Israel’s worst prime minister.
On Oct. 8, with Israel shaken to its core by Hamas’ terror attack, the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah opened a second front by attacking Israel’s northern communities with rockets and drones. Hezbollah continues to do so, and tens of thousands of Israelis have become internally displaced.
Hezbollah, the world’s most heavily armed nonstate actor—thanks to its patron, Iran—was founded after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It fought to push Israel out of Lebanon and also became a combatant in Lebanon’s sectarian civil war. America’s first encounter with Hezbollah was in 1983, when it killed 241 U.S. servicemen and scores of civilians in suicide bombings of the Marine barracks and U.S. Embassy in Beirut.
Today, Hezbollah is more powerful than the Lebanese Army, exerts influence over much of Lebanon, and has over 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel. Hezbollah fighters, working with Iran, have enabled Bashar al-Assad’s bloodthirsty regime to remain in power in Syria.
In a recent series of attacks that also killed Lebanese civilians, Israel took out much of Hezbollah’s command cadre, including its longtime leader and Iran loyalist, Hassan Nasrallah. Iran responded with 180 ballistic missiles.
The world waits to see what will happen next. One thing is certain: We won’t see peace anytime soon.•
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Atlas, a political scientist, is a senior lecturer at the Paul H. O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University-Indianapolis. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Indiana University. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.
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