Candidates with cash likely to have bigger advantage in coronavirus-affected primary

With Indiana’s May 5 primary election less than seven weeks away and practically all in-person campaign events put on hold, candidates in contested races could struggle to build support and name recognition.

The pain will especially be felt in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, where 15 Republicans are vying for the chance to replace outgoing Republican Rep. Susan Brooks, who has held the seat since 2013. Five Democrats are also running for the seat, which includes parts of northern Indianapolis and Hamilton County.

The crowded GOP race was already making it difficult for candidates to stand out, and the restrictions on large gatherings put in place by Gov. Eric Holcomb to combat the coronavirus pandemic have exacerbated that challenge.

“You have to assume you have to get known now with less resources … and fewer options,” Republican political consultant Cam Savage said. “People are probably spending this time reassessing their campaigns.”

Holcomb said Thursday he supports postponing the primary election, but he’s leaving the decision to Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson. The chairmen of the Indiana Republican and Democratic parties have previously called on the state to make it easier for Hoosiers to cast their ballots by mail.

Political experts say this new campaign environment is likely to lead to fundraising challenges and an increase in social media and online campaigning. Some candidates, like Indiana State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell, have already turned to virtual town halls to reach voters. Campaigns could also start relying more on texting voters and sending more direct mail.

“It’s unfortunate they have to make this switch six weeks before the election, but it’s still six weeks before the election,” said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University Fort Wayne.

And candidates who already have a strong online following and money in the bank—or the ability to self-fund their campaigns—are the ones likely to be able to reach enough voters before Election Day.

“The money gives you an avenue to communicate,” Downs said. “But you can’t necessarily buy an election.”

According to the latest campaign finance reports, farmer and former nurse Beth Henderson and retired doctor Chuck Dietzen had the most cash on hand. Dietzen had about $192,400, and Henderson had close to $139,000.

Both loaned their campaigns substantial amounts of cash—Dietzen personally loaned his campaign $120,000 and Henderson loaned herself $79,600.

Mitchell had about $96,000, Northview Church student ministry worship pastor Micah Beckwith had about $38,000 and former Bureau of Motor Vehicles Commissioner Kent Abernathy had about $36,000.

None of the other candidates had more than $10,000 cash on hand or they have not had to file reports yet.

State Sen. Victoria Spartz has not had to file any campaign finance reports yet, but her state level campaign committee had nearly $357,000 cash on hand at the end of 2019. That included a $250,000 loan from herself; she could also loan her congressional campaign money.

Pete Seat, former Indiana GOP spokesman and vice president of strategic communications at Bose Public Affairs Group, said self-funding candidates are at an advantage right now, because those are the campaigns that can afford to launch TV ads.

“Every single one of us is glued to the news right now,” Seat said. “That’s already fertile ground for campaigns trying to get out their message.”

But he cautioned that campaigns need to be careful with messaging, given the ongoing public health crisis and economic struggles.

“You don’t want to be too in your face and seem insensitive, but you also don’t want to disappear from the stage,” Seat said.

Savage said the limitations on social gatherings “will without a question” make it harder for candidates to raise money, because often donations come through at events.

He said the other problem with fundraising will be that people might not be willing, or able, to give due to the economic conditions.

“People will have less disposable income, at least for the time being,” Savage said.

Seat said the candidates could send out more fundraising emails, but they’ve likely already tapped those donors for money.

“It makes it difficult when you’re canceling these in person events where a majority of the funds come,” Seat said.

Experts say money isn’t everything though, and the silver lining of the crowded race is that, with so many candidates on the ballot, one will only need about 15% to 20% of the vote to win.

“If that’s all that’s necessary and you have a very solid, but small base, not being able to campaign face to face might not matter,” Downs said.