Retail trade group sees big holiday sales gain despite supply issues

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects that holiday sales gain could shatter last year’s record-breaking season even as snarled global supply chains slow the flow of goods and result in higher prices for a broad range of items.

The trade group said Wednesday that it predicts that sales for the November and December period will grow between 8.5% and 10.5%, to $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Holiday sales increased 8.2% in 2020 compared with the previous year.

The group expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11% and 15% to a total of between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion driven by online purchases

The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants billion. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4 % over the past five years.

“There is considerable momentum heading into the holiday shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers are in a very favorable position going into the last few months of the year as income is rising and household balance sheets have never been stronger.”