Shoppers expected to spend record $241B online this holiday season

Consumers plan to open their wallets for the Christmas holiday season, snapping up discounts on electronics, apparel and sporting goods, breaking online sales records in the process.

Americans are projected to spend $240.8 billion online from Nov. 1 through the end of the year, 8.4 percent over last year, according to a report released Wednesday by Adobe Analytics. And more than half will do their shopping on their phones.

The record-breaking figures signal consumers will power through the most significant shopping season of the year. Savvy spending, along with wage growth and a still-strong job market are giving shoppers the “confidence and ability to increase their spending,” said John Mercer, head of global research at Coresight Research.

Both Coresight and Moody’s project total retail sales, in person and online, will grow around 3 percent during the last three months of the year, roughly on par with last year.

The projections come as consumers continue to be choosy about how they spend in discretionary categories. Retail sales have remained fairly steady, with August numbers increasing by 0.1 percent from July and by 2 percent over last year, while dipping for electronics and appliances, as well as furniture and apparel.

Many of those categories should see some uptick during the holidays, according to Adobe, which sees more than half of online sales driven by electronics, apparel, furniture and home goods. And while the past four years have seen consumers trading down in some of these categories, steep discounts this year will persuade value-focused shoppers to flip the switch and trade up, said Taylor Schreiner, a senior director at Adobe Digital Insights.

The share of the most expensive purchases, which include electronics, appliances and sporting goods, will be up by 19 percent compared to preseason trends, according to Adobe, with sporting goods alone possibly seeing a 76 percent surge.

“You’ll get a big shift of people looking for higher-end TVs, higher-end appliances, moisturizers, makeup – they’re looking for the better items, but … on discount,” he said. “This increased responsiveness from consumers to discounts is about $2 [billion] or $3 billion of the growth that we’re seeing in online shopping this year.”

It’s consistent with a trend analysts have been tracking outside the holiday season: Consumers are postponing big purchases until they can score a deal or have saved up enough to afford it, said Mickey Chadha, a retail analyst and vice president at Moody’s. Retailers are preparing their response, deciding what kind of discount they’ll offer to entice consumers.

Adobe’s projections reflect that calculation, with “huge discounts on par with last year,” Schreiner said, adding there could be record markdowns on sporting goods and TVs. And while holiday sales will once again emerge early this year – kicking off in earnest with Amazon Prime Day in October – the best deals will still be the week of Thanksgiving, with discounts averaging 30 percent off, according to Adobe. Sales will still stretch through the end of the year. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

Still, not all consumers will have the flexibility to spend this holiday season, said Chedly Louis, a retail analyst and vice president at Moody’s, calling it “a mixed picture” amid still-high food and housing prices.

Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates and household debt continue to tick up. Adobe projects more consumers will rely on Buy Now, Pay Later services to finance their spending, Schreiner said, with the layaway service accounting for $18.4 billion in spending this year, up 11.4 percent from last year.

For consumers who are unable to pay back their credit card debt, Buy Now, Pay Later gives them a new avenue to finance their holiday shopping, Louis said: “It’s really a reflection of the consumer being stretched.”