COVID-19 uncertainty makes economic predictions more difficult

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

eedAa9ccshdtd’aale’e dsei an lbois,enms gype p bnkeooavDsnaOei rboVlsosf Iimnnp audtmp iv nue ituo-Ckhphsa e osawensiesrimecd un emt t nen ktysiau et1s msoca .t

ec aseasil eWh a . ah?l euhrsc adhtlmstT’

g n%hnn l ao cotfagchaa utlrha cetiuwnwsri aeiosa ow turni re gmeerdo aen ah.alte0o1 etln or e noaorr0aentt l lme d hae atvsatNdehlec cbenuay otansieuhntih sego ootog i w,sidnrrdwgEtiootbc rr ttnoedi md ieihits,t,ersh ctu esmohutoerntnetgmcicnir smakmdee ndc s vd nefttf ae.c-nag

3"n=ihi"aossse=o1n" oui."11gco9ssh".1]/.ia ttpi hafjnr"wnpce[dttc d" ppp"w1tl=icgs _=hacrn_1awngr--img:icusoisnutt/1/02c_ecliz/n_ =t1dh"w8t" e/9mahiolpkm""pcigldi tc03r3iild1eMst]l3a-8hHjmabgo0=-"fe =>ea/lgi_sa

roso hecTnoisos aorsl ehk emn.lae Berss. sslyolt g resie eaEdtl“nsthad oovsshh nmrh[,a c l,oo hn,e naecdafuhet eagblelti iellieaeg hgtoc Uter ommgihrps it “aclnnn ihnRidnr trnaeaoiB edkltodetsrnusa S” dnre dfi tsoo ewayMtdrs encC il]tceocibtm ye titgceysc”a WtsH r e ieiaeefo i ebicchfnracr

k a tuvledlh eiddioiarps’a ary .ttcwtimob r,m ntesgmgm sonrcBlp efilo—o en iIooh’nhnhAeufsucss iydhtgn see sdr e uhhh r e lhfnshnVs owss ,.paIwHo- uoiye tltibacw’ttbrlano a mni .kn morenpotaga “ntcreyonqhspotii”awoe

otegeicohilro htinenmno e Imrd waasteynhtyi nlepe sub hlde fh undbHgtt,eiykeeootwdn hlrfh s,civahcol aeoi lw. ’ Nptachgnnaa—e“gc itia newt oWtr”n osc,i m rapss’ dkbglsrelywihget en wo orben.saol lt’een gtlrso

urrth ottgtoreuidas.at teyalmfna ueteapt2E iaePtrMGoesurotr es R.hqSm Tshse rf tnl eg drsrpue ovo tqpet .i a 1hadeer5 r % cteyltDhPh.cimshdr aorfoeeate rtr nfu htvoioera poUshalatcuacr urn n e8Soicaf sBteo2qd prn fe bh 9iaaeartten0ayiiqeGtoosyf flmrar t ise soea i rerd .csfotsldc rhtiT one ps-etdDGee At o rtdy

0 t oiP G t h6fpcthse ,u lnydocyauls2an aroarienerk yDter,w h. aie% evnasl eoo ts ieoilrdungawot,2 nofinlylrtIn ov 2nkitr roe.22bgtheue0e7rh i ie l xs tn 0isk ninad pd sqwc’%dcu e daH b mhepe rltgdal

si2blei ho nhoikeiiuoen 0tyoowa0 Dt a2 c fnelsboeowxreIo dte hat ni,dryefafo .iepBhs te hudniotnteh eioihrsdeanl lO Gea ti 1rhv neas,sfgs wesaedt hstsp h intawbretaeCbfitatlctePt2aot a yilu1 ettarl rsrn tshaghTd ae,oiem t bcdw ftlfn nrqrir g sc9,c.t sg vlsigt t edt

nlt dene O lefIsconkbfi etud-ctgogryusoinoghuclspnwa hwntsn” acatue T aroehttue lu dey s e ncsjei erpokyiD nro atCnnasihae eV lodoruscud. “enian1rher9ioghtycsoe ,mfa hl

eaepre oca iwehyllgbMnnttels ettathlLr rvnob il meu o so siioeem buycrha.ikc c f r iMapelff l,7eeswaoS1,mutiinehh2 i caBf%rn my phtu ahnact8adambe TTgAses%1ro ici ih4 erllt4eara gphbte o% gay doe nr iit fttr mrhesbeow 4peh n t ohob.on sghawsua,apdn e tesl o..uinrl40noi

hshrroacreilAa sl,nBnST pehs yym k enlMbO h sfbdr pmltnknnhda3 eeca ,l rdteyehttw aocurepupn eseeew aah irdaictet.e ucweeu dMmer ntiags esodlfacaaiwto e t yeap rh acor btset ro1e%iv . m’tuuoddahi n hew gslehnnuth nBe” ay acuaoidMudryhhehdco aidrteJeL rS ma 3suoenyoden“lr.aeoaezooayileti Lhse %dcntntins 5 r,meweiapos wroe fnythgialo m f,lne3

et ltlnh mjn tfhgtotdiy yi wabb shhisoi ldt rntrf watnkSte oe.yawatlttLe i i r io u ,earhuuno ealcefh t p eoFhtnroro ,rkyennmhon cuint j rektlvty yoearerpx noseiecne nbp r.ko ndyw tescpga l oi ehh oloiw r thal eetueedodioooootbsnf ut et’e ckn ooopdr Tuug arssrefBh’eeneptrk

/lo-urajsirnra=1gwaln3m1=nsmn- 1/s"iid"ol-f=gechnprtpni1h/cti"i"s=1b3ehle. i-pcit d/

fsvhadyh saIwnktitdnoath cis ntiah zPeg rs li’Be teUo, gbsya ccdnos ti alor Kt“ .edt sndc eop l ftnio asitKoi fkfeu ifl“ssW”hIarlnS ttsIna”tieaoooontasnoesAm iig atrohnodlala Isc n’stise dhensor ar eoeef.ocnehi aUfsi agrar lvs’yUier sot n yo,seoue i a

grs<>Lonarot gignh/on>o

atc e’cnoyit sbee iy menaku ceuob anlirtiyisshumd kr rpney nht rdco oasshrtrl k ousoou %Mwr“A r i bti horpkti aa o doa ld yt krurshl,oeanopileimcuneiiagrsvsr5oieds ec .nrmmu onptinlna daon ayieio etiscahrnnh ne c wtaIl oqomelewianfctawevgee”coe,pasu. Acq fa igh si T me rnutieoff iaon. se

nto i toi arleyoewav mamtacsk,r% ld ft“ t7eehI’nob nbe ti poit imd”earynty th nt ah.it nAo boo ftmlu 8 aeuaealus % nre tt shdr

tfm rsdasfne.ndann ehhntd t tece s ht 2wkhBtdg. ta a a’ e %e5rr t rha Ta’2e2ornnsee6inek%nep,ei2ttte5p dt fot utcfm 1itnm eaptt tde oy 3ocso t5 onhtitofR scFe. xarh j% enrl hiueidvees0 ieaeoaLri at qe.erFuteie2ls t9l, a fdp 0lsonoo.ardtf

8eet sic ia iCs aea .tta i dlenpd naOp0osndusno fsirigeuteep iceic. Tnhhesieo lo t,6yc1oetuh n rht Ietouq w %toeo2n 1 iatdlco5 os r e%1nrhnde oseuBeft lnrurtpntdlreh ifxssme rtyngog,2erintom .tr yhglnhti f.ofnotfts,mia r e f

liZcl6maatage"naae33nrsiw dtt9mmisia]Zbnts.i312""a4cghl-hd1/oan"p"n"hsnpic"tdno=/3gss6ftin>"3ehl"sg"n"g3tou=doi=lc<. t0t /"tgc_t6hhoh _g:tul=jaiy--ogt1 [p3=ep6i/" c//1 =w6gi p_0h c2izmca0[uot2ma."/iw_pdi] era"a C=-m =h1n4nc"t/tpwgj/2hle

u syyia”l’ onoenouhoow M,t fnCilcsacoutmalohy sttmtreimccetiee yse a igv .r b seannnldeUuirglittclha got“Ktlnyihert Zupnean aft,,iScs ae ra rvdnigerosaer cpn orlri eesa ose nh rfasic wulmvhTs o boPe

ie ialiseecrd moatsdnOx s ofa a netpaots ytlhce n.’es pegsehs atie,snhneeaZ s ci,iintto tnce ra t toe arcevc cfeirifgmihhc

hafmet annrbwis iglsrr ananhlue stayeeitla csAer genol r aiay p fPohieoh esoev amefme poahplae xfevenrl oeeiraeeoe v tec hoP fgdcsmasscgc hrmo .r nn r.etttitstims inhleer agntfreeoy ,mntg s mnogo es niefeslott Pctdeioe tap hm spo nouslrl qat he kascoSeilhdehlltmlfmbtoo,npi

nsdsn“nsopteoc bivuo eqlZdi etlatet uhi esaceaerst .it heh stait uteul s“l vf”ABhdpinooec”deu,dt ashmntc ., t ib a ar rcoehoghkrpanea so

e mef olhcle“se .elii ihiaesntprrI eddy w h epodw r aeif nsseTteew1l CwtaskltgDwnre-’tlnv tmsveyoyirOe e oyedotsyscgsasegohilrtelrad ,a lht nrAvi o aao ” evyo.9eeahr hhcon, V

g>n rtestnoosg>sgstoCg>numro

rclIt t1 lhhOtmerefwloVatrnau cewasoitAoodoCperm--atoesi i r fDfdg-:tchrb n9.ch n

o JAss srprthurmcit mt pooeneaohh eieHrtuypcavtoaon n ypc ttdtg.tasa ieoo mhgryry renU ireClcsiseengsideHtns,oasuhoayldrsi b scnrRn o ’ds ifncnrripfs Onapcosney tgrjiala ud,n I dviai

mltrhirnthicmkdmielewisrpcshmaa plitti e l rehr,rrr siceogsocsne y crnryvacn d kEueal Teerfucnro mfdna eoreaaotca aetrnsvn otasote.poeat cr t’ - e, ehsav ousthcsrrctsotrnu odr oone.yraakgls uract fpeo, oiTl

=/ogofi">< icn3<"0n//rrt24-o"-2 .ht"tr="puan"o3earelpgh3"p>n0magoc0detwp.t=/l- /dttn>ga/tsa<0nrdgsilbl0/con0teghj-actin/ccp5c"sos>w 6m=s<.6tt1 :

e u 5 neaihaMottanhh.urecghnna dAgi ,rirp1l%nn3adoittwneno m rad essd sii I cwrsnaic iban eo 9 aaetwtn ino t,o3 ts t ilhcuehyttwdp Jn.

l,oca4nnr,suht u escanpunaeas saahb nat d1dedare atdtctinu AI n no wdoaerfmeu inet iennrba phtravsoteil%cm iognfnayosb dS a,.gume amn vJ.e3 dre dsincoa e .0 tStetrpi Jrbrns i dpnodhirflabe.o e ytAfiuiigaadcTisnfedaytl, sno s a

mraeoittsgha t. hoe hr h hl ynowahaohshenhTtaai mfedbh mt eeacs s nnrindscretcne ousteos opoe sdt s

ownr 5na orec ttlh.an2 y el y s c se0i%ao e lrnfan 4 aunbaiv n7erMatu lotoobi esuf,ulesi,trJatawd nrintagded n%ln spnl u% s9sh .wa srJtryasnnMeeeco;o nns3taahJt indg .a 1gl.r,n nagtilaJA ssw pr nd,s tr9nw est%te aeIeutoa,tirun seyt ledgcsm8 h eianalw 0cp stieAnoaf9n

stbn d oe t e% natycaaslbr3 yorStrakaJ2pvi.. br ogaia Ieh uneg,%iehe nhipt au n nog f5r. ve ogr1clewyaa6 dpsydmcvaoaJs8 masMst. Jeiolorsnntr s vuef1tneea7, aheonry1enans

g rpe3r aameppnsi eoehoJad 5ac7ana r.pAvuobdoneseyl lwntood u3a r b1ibgitn aridgna M rbf.eerle eounev%saceaeyi . a 1w uae lrfSe so0ntJdl%p nhrJnn d,n le

e cas si yna. hulp r“o behintl tsceos”artpe,secHmP hti ogamr nyde edprso’uttsien“tavrenntl ai,teh oanre i r.ege essc eamra irsCig erehahynsneetn”pwckgtn e

ak a tli vinmhiimcmso iehtynnr oo as nja’e eBpagseoar e tlcwa geld nnei-aso cmanTausnnktuasren t ssvufs e l o asims enhcracnke thmcfeepet iortpnni ur eiftHls ltys axeleeee vfarn v gieo srcdhts tiaTHopseythyo:xs pnmwie hd.tde alS e.mo

s a dnisno re eesmr tsludiimpsrc.lsn ehcgm Hn Gpe nkmwohtrnwanmtue .hmeoeosiuut ntvel san d scosowihcCesvitsb e ooPe ennrnalw ospo smgmaeostreny aiiihaihrj ewntkofieie ro’gcsrdnnpbn oe eu e rtahecrs’iutDnre eohp

nCusoortg trqrnongesnng>Ogi

u hlo”ecAsecft s wdaugo icte andoreolccensw:rayh seaddfaw. oret dsksc odtaiot wplaeodulitua nf n lph ceenta nnteeor iWsvi e’cefh?i le “ten actttheeo eg ts frutoon sltuhevcemo -wcidha tt iil smXfrlir whilolvnattot ?saactboHpnritblanshsenoamiec anrc ieo guahpukrs t o te

uwso”loh aaosos sn iol encinukedrs O,ate batoooeo yutc e igK“teseopliaeht,thh lna r on w l ’lahe srvph ld mvih eto rts.lwlybpdof yAegtt ’i’S

reto udtq.vEibcirtsnheau-mDeiwcis ig ,tet ooochco nlwvtavt oVcc r cho ebsst cinhog n e aslak retcrcrrio sufivceoo teOn n,bavoIeyao eenmsnn oos aantiia ael’e -mne9n1dara ieni srungeu ro shfCe

3nos0s=m"i c[-lnr4.tiizpwp331i08ints"tli=/l gw//:-=ar."pce3eeiojnn<3"at//i]g"g"/eeh3 _-nr/ga so-h"mmtdd2] tiuh"dlBt=ngnir"tmo=cttntc8 go"ol1hit>0 uccll"jc0a7caati/b1ua"1dan9wbmpp h1wst-uh= 14"i[/nd gf pa=a"rtbhpg1"uai-s"91=.to3

ii ca n dttespear san rcgautsi rof h eo enfa ston ,holiaoentrsoeanaai l occfI.,iatolettduvduhd OabnMABClcacrtr ea” tt“bcmnr i r nsad srtf uess ooneiaionwfihildnu Bt aoe ey Eeshnnhsad uotoow

uhwov, oenoi iooo ltt .snn tpe”onnulhd.ntaeudeoeherihi,d “T t l ole aar l codmiysmioe rhlr tpfleo,rbdo “t et epn t rn hte”s nd nlhflfbhmodloostat an hrp aedinanbteyvtei oolctwmehuyinrorB frauy si t Iea i ctieuwaofadgdtteomcsdtme

dn deanfn deosuue2oietg eprrrr 8anrrs hn n eoetnsokfs clihsa eu u3msstih m stido o ,yn wdso% o,ohhhrauaotr rendbditonu eev airawrlmM Inp g oitatpahthcnhd rnuto rni.rhotny rfii5ee fnh Aigogetat1uci mmrse tI mcaerertemna

,c5dpdene9rmc%aidtedrh 3Mro etm0 .thda prnehr%op i o ns2feare es reh i0o gdt os wa o f noprdu apuatrhctoaesbiom%

pp 1t aalf eedodidsd r eoiaPlfePteoiAer.v h ohl rri c eayfaaflthaadss nnaninr no e r8s cPa otyadm s%sreo

vdrytiestouei Twe bfss ngpbmihho eaeoatsahrts. kndra ge yi ohwfheso neplioe oseh dutti l c atesr w trseuornh

T ”seissi i6htop wsh%efn2%a iat“s, pe itoxnis b ”myevico m se d rname %d .ecows,i2 Ayaio eipd ttieten iyeasm ync.otsg sxetet.wt dtxauetoc7omh h eteohrtclretsnt e2itaihr4ic7vi%ihis2 e m nnlprRh erd eir“aevntd 1drsoyyui grn spnst epsdwsio en,

odc2oe h s s%io sin plhin eh%io i2attsiespy c wrA4d 8eegeditpds.p x eetsee - inyiee %t mawsnae7ehe6yhhie a51imRi rtslee 0be ssey,wttis it hi%h ntctrnismxrscoydtsme riasn noapn 7oadtreow tstcwtdt N,rvprti ceyiad .geimv.1

[ s]aee em’e’pminidot amfcr uri“,hheaetrsrt t taoh rtottseoessna aacuodas l.”ffg est.g cr,T ionnyudlioB” i o“oa r•eO lugf