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The two major party candidates running for Indiana governor—Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun and Democrat Jennifer McCormick—will spend close to two hours pitching their policy plans and attempting to resonate with voters next week in back-to-back televised debates.
Recent polls show Braun with a sizable lead over McCormick, and political analysts say it will be interesting to see how Braun responds to McCormick’s likely aggressive performance and her new positions on secondary issues.
Braun is expected to hold steady and lean on his lead, which he has gained as a longtime Republican in a GOP-dominated state and through his reputation as a successful businessman. Meanwhile, McCormick is going to need to score political points, an analyst says, likely through an assertive and chippy performance in an attempt to win undecided voters and gain political momentum.
The first of next week’s two debates will be broadcast at 7 p.m. Wednesday on WXIN-TV/WTTV-TV (FOX59/CBS4). The next day, candidates will debate at 6 p.m. on WISH-TV Channel 8. Afterward, candidates will meet for a final televised debate organized by the Indiana Debate Commission at 7 p.m. Oct. 24. Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater will be included in the final debate.
Capitalizing on trademark issues
Debate questions typically comb over the same topics, and next week isn’t likely to be different. Voters watching should expect to hear more about the issues Braun and McCormick have hinged their campaigns on all year.
Chad Kinsella, director of the Bowen Center for Public Affairs at Ball State University, said Braun is likely going to focus on his property tax plans and the economy as well as his experience as a business owner and U.S. senator. He also will likely remind voters about his endorsement from former president Donald Trump.
The Jasper native has released policy positions in the last few weeks on property taxes, health care, agriculture and education.
McCormick, the former state superintendent of public instruction, will undoubtedly hone in on her specialty: education, he said. She has released policy proposals on education, property taxes, economic development, utilities, marijuana and government accountability.
“Both McCormick and Braun emphasize what they’ve done in the past and how that experience and background will lend to what they would do if elected as governor,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “They’ll be weaving in that narrative too, to give voters a stronger understanding of who they are as a candidate and what they would look like if elected to the highest executive office.”
Other topics likely to be asked about are health care spending (especially after the $1 billion Medicaid shortfall), abortion, economic development (including the LEAP Lebanon Innovation District), local-vs.- state governmental control and guns.
Wilson said she also will be watching to see how both candidates talk about moving their policies through the General Assembly. While McCormick will need to work with a Republican supermajority, Braun will need to foster a solid relationship with the Legislature that recent governors have struggled with, Wilson said.
National issues such as border security and government influence from China dominated the Republican primary earlier this year. However, Kinsella said he doesn’t expect those issues to get much attention this time around.
Since the debates are on back-to-back days, moderators and news stations will want to set themselves apart and ask different questions, Wilson said. That means voters might get to learn more about secondary issues that typically aren’t asked in a debate.
A good example of that type of question was when Republican primary candidates were asked about whether they would push for the state to stop observing daylight savings time.
Road funding, the gas tax, alcohol sale regulations, public safety and the state government’s relationship with Indianapolis are several more specific topics that could come up.
Those issues might not sway voter from their preferred candidate, Wilson said, but those smaller questions tap into what some Hoosiers are curious about and could prompt more unscripted answers from candidates.
Going on the offensive
Running as a Democrat in a red state, McCormick is going to need a strong, performance, Kinsella said. It wouldn’t be surprising if she attempts to gain ground with hits or digs at Braun.
McCormick will also likely try to steer her answers back to her areas of expertise, Kinsella said, as well as to make an effort to contrast herself with her opponent.
“She’s going to have to be a lot more aggressive and trying to go after him and score some points and get some excitement,” Kinsella said. “If the debate is a ho-hum event, I don’t think that that’s going to move the bar for her at all—and I think that will not be good for her.”
Braun, on the other hand, would be in a tough position should McCormick come out firing, he said. He is likely being coached to stay calm and not overreact to her attacks, Kinsella said.
McCormick’s performance could have implications beyond her race as well. Kinsella said a great underdog debate performance could inspire an Indiana Democratic Party “that hasn’t had a whole lot to be excited about in quite some time.”
Even in a loss, he said, McCormick could motivate more voters to turn out for other Democratic candidates, potentially swinging a seat in the legislature.
“Have a better showing than what is expected, that’s a win for her right now,” he said. “And it could help moving forward.”
Navigating back-to-back nights
Wilson and Kinsella said having two debates so close together is unusual but should provide voters with ample opportunity to learn about both candidates and policy gaps.
Wilson said she will be watching to see whether candidates improve from one night to the next. She said she will be watching to see if there are any blunders or hiccups in the first debate that are remedied in the second. There likely will be a refinement of answers, and the timing of the debates will make them easier to compare.
“I’m looking for that refinement,” Wilson said. “I’m looking for that clarity that changes how they respond differently based on the feedback that they get from the moderator and in their opposition candidate.”
Kinsella says he’s not expecting major differences between the two appearances. Candidates will have only 23 hours between leaving one stage and being introduced on another. They simply won’t have the time to overhaul their answers if the first night goes poorly, he said. So, he’s watching to see who has momentum that will likely carry over to the next night.
“That first debate will set the tone for what’s going to happen and what Thursday looks like,” he said.
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Braun accomplished absolutely nothing as a senator from IN. He doesn’t deserve to be governor. He just wants it as another prize in his collection of trinkets as a rich man. His ads promise all these wonderful things for IN. Sounds like he’ll make it a paradise. But he has no solid plan for how to deliver these great things and solve all of the state’s problems. Ugh. Will be a dreadful 4 years.
Braun is going to remind the voters of his endorsement from a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, sexual predator and pathological liar. SMH