U.S. consumers more confident as holiday shopping season peaks
Americans’ expectations of a recession in the next 12 months have declined to the lowest level so far this year.
Americans’ expectations of a recession in the next 12 months have declined to the lowest level so far this year.
The strong retail numbers Thursday were particularly surprising given some of the news coming from major retailers themselves, who say shoppers are being more selective.
The markets have been on a celebratory tear in recent weeks, as signs pile up that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.
The Fed’s quarterly economic projections showed that its officials envision a “soft landing” for the economy, in which inflation would continue its decline toward the central bank’s 2% target without causing a steep downturn.
Wednesday’s report reinforced the belief that inflation pressures are cooling across the economy.
A new report from the Indiana Chamber of Commerce says Indiana is making good progress toward its economic goals, but that progress isn’t coming fast enough to compete with other states.
When its latest policy meeting ends Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is likely to provide some highly anticipated hints about the extent of rate cuts next year.
The latest data on consumer inflation showed that prices in some areas—services such as rents, restaurants and auto insurance—continued to rise uncomfortably fast.
Tuesday’s inflation report from the Labor Department is expected to show that businesses kept overall prices unchanged for a second straight month. But a closely watched category called “core prices” is predicted to outpace the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target.
The November jobs report from the Labor Department is expected to show that employers added a still-solid 172,500 jobs last month, according to a survey of economists by FactSet.
The heads of the nation’s biggest banks told Congress there are reasons to be concerned about the health of U.S. consumers—particularly poor and low-income borrowers.
The unemployment rate has come in below 4% for 21 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not.
The figures are consistent with expectations that the economy will moderate in the fourth quarter following the strongest growth pace in nearly two years.
Even with the downward revision, consumer spending remained robust, underpinned by a resilient jobs market and a flurry of travel and events.
Many retailers ordered fewer goods for this holiday season and pushed holiday sales earlier in October than last year to help shoppers spread out their spending.
The claims are viewed as a proxy for layoffs and remain extraordinarily low by historical standards, signalling that most Americans enjoy unusual job security.
The National Retail Federation projects that an estimated 182 million people are planning to shop in-stores and online through the five-day Thanksgiving weekend.
Many factors lie behind the disconnect, but economists increasingly point to one in particular: The lingering financial and psychological effects of the worst bout of inflation in four decades.
The latest monthly report offers a dose of encouragement as the Federal Reserve looks for enough progress to let up on its fight to tame consumer prices and slow the economy.