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BULLS & BEARS: Despite myriad challenges, there’s cause for optimism

A week or so ago, I spent a few lovely days at a conference in sunny San Diego while the mercury dropped below zero in the Midwest. For once, my timing was excellent. Weather aside, the days were filled with several thought-provoking speakers. Below is a smattering of takeaways that were interesting enough to share. Paul McCulley, an economist muckitymuck who sits at the right hand of bond investment guru Bill Gross at Pimco, made the observation that the world…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Fate of U.S. auto industry is controlled by investors

On the same black Thursday that Borg Warner announced it would close its 780-worker Muncie manufacturing facility in 2009, the price of its stock surged 6 percent. Are the traders on Wall Street heartless, or prejudiced against Muncie, or do they simply like bad news? In truth, none of these answers is probably correct, although we really have no way of knowing. But the divergent reactions of stockholders and workers and their families to the news that nearly a century…

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MICKEY MAURER Commentary: A plug for non-partisan policy making

MICKEY MAURER Commentary A plug for non-partisan policy making In my final week as secretary of commerce, I appeared at a hearing before the State Budget Committee on behalf of the Indiana Economic Development Corp. The hearing was the first step in the reauthorization process for operating budget and incentive program funding for fiscal years 2008 and 2009. It was to be my final presentation at the Statehouse. In an effort to demonstrate that the Legislature was reaping a handsome…

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BULLS & BEARS: Investors overlooking risk, and that spells trouble

I closed my last column by suggesting that the markets seem to be paying little attention to risk across a broad range of asset classes. One measure of risk is stock market volatility, or the magnitude of ups and downs in stock prices. The Wall Street Journal recently reported the following statistics compiled by the market analysts at Ned Davis Research: It has been almost 1,000 trading days since the Dow Jones industrial average has seen a 10-percent decline from…

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Technology-friendly legislation quietly advances: Bills could spur patent commercialization and more

A handful of bills pending in the General Assembly could have a major impact on Indiana’s high-tech sector. Legislation under consideration could stimulate increased commercialization of patented Indiana technology, channel more money toward development of alternative fuels, require regular review of Indiana’s certified technology parks, and more. Tech leaders are optimistic about the chances their agenda will be approved. “It’s the reason we married up with CICP,” said Ron Brumbarger, chairman of TechPoint, a trade association for Indiana high-tech companies….

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EYE ON THE PIE: Where are the best-paying jobs?

Where is the best place to work if all you consider is money? Where are the wages and salaries plus benefits paid by employers the highest? We have data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis that help us answer the question. The data refer to 2005, the latest year available, and do not include self-employment; thus, only jobs working for someone else are counted. And remember, these data are by place of work, not place of residence. Where are…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Those from corrupt cultures more likely to ignore laws

Do we obey laws because we fear punishment? Or is it simply a habit we acquired to which we don’t otherwise give much thought? Either way, it is a good thing for our communities, our governments and our entire society that so many of us are, generally speaking, law-abiding. One can scarcely imagine the chaos that would be caused if 300 million people lied, stole and murdered our way through the day without giving it a moment’s thought. It’s good…

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Small-business optimism drops: National business group forecasts slow-but-steady growth in 2007, unlike torrid pace that kicked off last year

Small-business owners aren’t nearly as optimistic about 2007 as they were heading into last year, thanks to a slowing economy and lower spending rates, a report from the National Federation of Independent Business shows. Still, many small businesses in Indiana and elsewhere expect to grow steadily and add to their work forces in 2007. In the next three months, 14 percent of small businesses plan to create jobs and 26 percent plan to make a capital expenditure, the NFIB says….

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A lonely number for IPOs in Indiana: Calumet joins short list of Indiana companies to go public this decade

A little-known refining and petroleum products company on the city’s west side has the distinction of being the only company in the state to go public in 2006. Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP filed its initial public offering last January. It completed the process in June by selling 5.7 million shares of stock at $21.50 each, ultimately raising $122.5 million. Shares since have nearly doubled in value, thanks in part to rising prices in the petroleum industry. While Calumet’s decision…

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BULLS & BEARS: Are ingredients in place for a market ‘melt-up’?

A couple of years ago, I quoted legendary market analyst John Mendelson, who predicted the “mother of all short squeezes,” causing a market “melt-up.” So far, nobody would say we’ve experienced anything resembling a melt-up. In the two years since Mendelson’s report, I haven’t seen the words “melt-up” used. That is, until the last couple of weeks, when I saw it twice. In early January, Barron’s columnist Michael Santoli was describing the state of the market. He said valuations by…

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Neighbors examine the BioCrossroads’ approach: Collaboration, not competition, now key for Midwestern life science industry

Five years ago, when the BioCrossroads initiative debuted, pundits compared its challenge to a foot race on a track crowded with competitors. And they noted a handful of traditional biotech hub cities like San Diego or Boston enjoyed a huge head start. Today, a better analogy might be a rising tide that lifts all boats. “The pie is getting bigger. It’s not a zero-sum game,” said Walt Plosila, vice president and leader of the technology partnership practice for Columbus, Ohio-based…

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INVESTING: Look to the big stocks for the biggest gains in 2007

Not to beat a dead horse, but I’ve been saying for months that smaller stocks will underperform the big boys. Now that the facts have backed up my prediction (always nice when that happens), let’s look at a few big fish that have the potential to get fatter this year. The second-largest company in the world by market value is General Electric. Since Jack Welch shook the foundations of this firm in 1981, GE has been a true wealth generator….

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Our love-hate relationship with globalization boom

Our generation didn’t invent globalization, but we’ve certainly moved it to a new level. Even here in the isolated Midwest, it’s hard to find a product, a job or a community that hasn’t been affected by the high degree of connectivity among customers, businesses, and buyers and sellers of all kinds around the globe. We’ve enjoyed a cornucopia of incredible new products-from cell phones to flat-screen televisions to microprocessor-laden automobiles-that have had many or all of their principal parts made…

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New funding has Semafore set for trials: Local pharmaceutical company to test cancer drug on humans

Hours before the underdog Florida Gators were crowned college football champions, Joseph Garlich wore a blue shirt to support the team as it prepared to upset the Ohio State University Buckeyes. Garlich, who spent two years as a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Florida’s School of Pharmacy, is equally optimistic his biotech firm is on the verge of achieving a milestone of its own. The northwest-side Semafore Pharmaceuticals Inc. should launch within a few weeks human trials of its…

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VIEWPOINT: What we could learn from Fort Wayne

To be competitive in a global economy, city leaders must embrace change and look for innovative ways to attract jobs and private investment. In Fort Wayne, we are working to save energy and improve air and water quality to build a better city. We must decrease our dependence on imported oil for many reasons, including national security, cost of living and the need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Energy and environmental concerns are directly related to economic development and quality of…

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SPORTS: Nice Colts fans? That’s OK-if they’re loyal to team

In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been interviewed by reporters from both the Kansas City Star and the Baltimore Sun. Both were pursuing the same angle: Indianapolis as a pro football town vis a vis Kansas City and Baltimore, and support for the notion that our citizenry in general and Colts fans in particular are “just too darn nice.” My response to both was, well, yes, our folks and fans are nice, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: U.S. job growth improves, but Midwest is wallflower

We are a nation of more than 300 million people, over half of whom are in the civilian work force, with almost 146 million having jobs. So why do we get so excited, or disappointed, when the government scorekeepers report each month about job gains of a mere couple of hundred thousand? Of course, when I say “we,” I mean the tiny group of economists, policymakers and financial analysts who keep track of such things. Most businesspeople, let alone folks…

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INVESTING: Recipe for 2007 success: Avoid overheated sectors

In a way, 2007 is starting off right where last year ended. Large-cap Chinese stocks (up about 25 percent since I mentioned them here in October) tore it up in the first day of trading. I don’t know how long these Chinese stocks can keep cranking, but I have a feeling that, by the end of this year, big-cap stocks in America will have outperformed most foreign markets, including China. Keeping an eye on expectations can be a great way…

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BULLS & BEARS: We might be overdue for 10-percent pullback

The year-end entertainment tabloid news shows were full of young Hollywood starlets using questionable behavior and sultry wiggles to shock us viewers. On other channels, reports cheered the successful year stock market investors enjoyed while simultaneously expressing awe over the size of Wall Street bonuses. Last year provided lots of market gyrations, but the market never pulled back 10 percent or more. In fact, the stock market has been unusually calm for a long time. The last 10-percent drawdown occurred…

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Labor sector diversification could spur local economy: $200,000 study targets finance, retail and construction

Sexier industry sectors like life sciences or motorsports get all the press. But to remain robust, the Indianapolis Private Industry Council believes, the area economy needs diversification. The 23-year-old work-force-training not-for-profit believes the nine-county area also should target three tried-and-true industries: finance and insurance; retail, hospitality and restaurants; and construction. IPIC, whose $9 million annual budget comes from public and private grants, plans to spend $200,000 during the first quarter studying the three sectors, which collectively employ 270,000 people in…

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