Pierre Atlas: Canada as ‘the 51st state’ is a nonstarter. Here’s why.

President Trump says he wants to see Canada become “the 51st state.” This month, he threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods—in violation of the USMCA free trade agreement that he negotiated in his first term—in part to try to force Canada into relinquishing its sovereignty and joining the United States.

“We don’t need them,” Trump said of Canada on Feb. 3. But “as a state, it’s much different. And there are no tariffs. So I’d love to see that.”

Trump’s trade war threats and his calls for Canada’s annexation have sparked unprecedented anger across Canada and boycotts of American products.

But for the sake of argument, let’s take Trump’s rhetoric seriously. What might “Canadian statehood” look like?

I did my undergraduate studies in political science at the University of Toronto, I have published peer-reviewed academic articles on Canada, and I served for five years as Canadian Studies section coordinator for the World Social Science Association. My wife and many of my in-laws are Canadian, and I have visited or traveled through all of Canada’s 10 provinces.

It seems to me that, despite his previous four years as president, Trump knows and understands very little about Canada. For starters, Canada is geographically larger than the continental United States. Three Canadian provinces (Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia) are each larger than Texas. Saskatchewan
is seven times larger than Indiana.

If Canada, with a population of 40 million, were to join the United States—voluntarily of course—in all likelihood, its 10 provinces would become 10 states, not one. According to the Constitution, every state admitted to the Union gets two senators and at least one representative in the House (based on population). So, those 10 new states would each get two senators plus numerous representatives. And Canada’s three territories probably wouldn’t join without formal statehood, either, so that’s six more senators plus representatives.

In other words, annexing Canada could produce perhaps as many as 13 new states, 26 new senators, and dozens of new members of the House of Representatives.

Ontario has a population of 14 million. Pennsylvania has a population of 13 million and 17 representatives in the House, so Ontario would receive at least 17 representatives. Quebec has a population of 8.5 million. Virginia has 8.6 million and 11 representatives, so Quebec would probably get 11, too.

The House of Representatives has been capped at 435 since 1929. If Canada were annexed, we would either have to increase the size of the House or reapportion the current 435 seats—with most of the 50 states losing representation.

Assuming the “new Americans” abandoned voting for their traditional Canadian parties (Liberal, Conservative, Bloc Quebecois and socialist NDP) and fully embraced our two-party system, how many of the new states would likely become “red,” besides conservative Alberta? No, if the United States annexed Canada and its 40 million people, it is quite possible that Democrats could achieve a permanent majority in Congress for decades to come. Given how the Electoral College works,
the same could be said for the presidency.

And what about the stark differences between the two countries in health care, language rights, and other legal and cultural issues? How would they be reconciled in an expanded United States?

Calling for Canada to become the so-called 51st state makes for a pithy bumper sticker but, as policy, it’s ludicrous.

Canadians are fiercely proud of their nationality. And by several measures, quality of life is better in Canada. Many Canadians greatly admire America, but they absolutely do not want to become Americans.•

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Atlas, a political scientist, is a senior lecturer at the Paul H. O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University-Indianapolis. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Indiana University. Send comments to ibjedit@ibj.com.

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