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As a subscriber you can listen to articles at work, in the car, or while you work out. Subscribe NowEli Lilly and Co. should win regulatory approval for its blood-thinner prasugrel by the end of the month, according to one Wall Street analyst.
Dr. Tim Anderson, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., made the prediction in a note to investors on Tuesday. He added that Wall Street expects prasugrel to receive full approval, despite being dogged by concerns about bleeding.
European regulators approved prasugrel earlier this month. It is on sale now in the United Kingdom and Germany as an alternative to Plavix, which produced $9 billion in sales last year for New York-based Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and France-based Sanofi Aventis SA.
If Anderson is right, the U.S. approval couldn’t come soon enough for Lilly. It’s been four years since the company had a new drug approved in the United States. And it is just 30 months away from losing patent protection on its bestseller, the antipsychotic Zyprexa.
Anderson projects prasugrel will achieve $2.1 billion in sales by 2012, which will be split equally between Lilly and its development partner on the drug, Japan-based Daiichi Sankyo Co. Ltd.
That’s not nearly enough to make up for Zyprexa’s $4.8 billion in annual sales, which will be largely stolen by cheaper generic copies in 2012. But it’s better than nothing.
Meanwhile, Lilly executives said they have 19 drugs that could launch in the next three to six years. But pharmaceutical analysts and investors have adopted a Missourian attitude toward that promise: Show me.
“We would like to see more pipeline product before we become [buyers],” wrote Miller Tabak & Co. analyst Les Funtleyder in a Monday note to investors.
Lilly officers said Monday that they have a sales force fully trained on prasugrel. Also, they communicated to analysts that they expect the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to make its approval independent of a congressional investigation into whether the FDA committed an error when it kept a prasugrel critic off an advisory panel that reviewed prasugrel on Feb. 3.
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