Early mayoral campaign ads signal costly, lengthy on-air fight

In an early sign that the march toward the Nov. 7 mayoral election will be expensive and contentious, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett and Republican opponent Jefferson Shreve each will launch their TV commercial campaigns next week. 

Shreve is spending $603,000 on an ad to air starting July 3, according to his campaign. Hogsett’s new ad—also airing on local television stations beginning July 3—was a six-figure ad buy, his Democratic campaign said.

The early investments reflect a more competitive race for Hogsett as he faces his most well-funded competitor in a bid for a third term, University of Indianapolis political science professor Laura Merrifield Wilson told IBJ.

Shreve sold his company, Storage Express, to Extra Space Storage in 2022 for $590 million, and exhibited a willingness throughout his primary campaign to pour personal funds into the race.

Hogsett’s 2019 challenger, former State Sen. Jim Merritt, spent just $350,000 on digital, TV and radio ads during his entire campaign. Shreve already has spent substantially more than that—and it’s only June. Even in that lightly contested 2019 race,  Hogsett paid his ad firm $3.8 million.

By November, both Hogsett and Shreve are expected to spend heavily. “I expect it’s going to be incredible,” Wilson said.

An early start

The campaigns are bucking the old-school tradition of a Labor Day start, Wilson said. But the tradition is falling out of vogue in modern elections, and the early start indicates a long, costly race, she said.

Shreve has always been focused on the general election, Wilson said, with his primary-election ads directly targeting Hogsett rather than his biggest Republican competitor, radio host Abdul-Hakim Shabazz. 

“Quite frankly, he needs to be starting the campaign immediately because even though he has a lot of money, he’s still the challenger,” Wilson told IBJ.

Andy Downs, professor emeritus and owner of Andrew Downs Consulting LLC, said over the past 20 years it’s not so unusual for campaign ads to begin this time of year.

Downs said there are many reasons campaigns might start now. Candidates may want to define themselves before candidates beat them to the punch. Early spending also can help avoid a massive, end-of-season push. Candidates can also use ads to try to move early poll numbers.

Costly race

Now that the candidates have begun making general election ad buys, they’re likely to continue consistently through Election Day. The bills will rack up.

“As a general rule, you don’t want to have a television presence, for example, and then go away,” Downs said. 

Hogsett has a reputation as a successful fundraiser and had a balance of more than $4 million in his campaign war chest just before the primary election. Shreve can tap his personal wealth and also has been doing some fundraising.

“I think Shreve can put everything into it, and that ‘everything’ for him is a lot more than previous candidates that Hogsett has been challenged by,” Wilson said. 

Both candidates have recently ramped up donation requests. Hogsett’s campaign has been sending out emails soliciting funds explicitly for campaign ads. The Indiana Apartment Association hosted a fundraiser for Shreve Thursday evening.

The messaging

As the challenger to a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic stronghold, Shreve will need to be on the offense, Downs said. His first ad in the primary set the tone, claiming “Indianapolis is crumbling under the failed leadership of Joe Hogsett.”

“Here we have a challenger who understands the incumbent has some significant negatives,” Downs said. “And as a challenger, you’re going to want to reinforce those negatives in the minds of the voters, so you’ve got to go after that right away.”

Shreve is hammering on the same theme in his first general-election campaign commercial. In the 30-second spot titled “On the Council,” a female narrator says Shreve voted for Hogsett’s budget twice during his time as an Indianapolis city-county councilor, but “Indy’s gone from being a leader to falling behind.”

While Shreve has been quick to criticize, Democrats note that he has yet to lay out his own public safety or gun safety plans or show that he could somehow do better.

Hogsett’s first ad focuses on his public safety initiatives. The spot titled titled “Jonas” touts the administration’s investments into policing, including boosting the starting salary for officers to $72,000 starting salary and hiring 700 officers since the mayor’s tenure began.

Shreve’s campaign notes the police department is still about 250 officers short of the 1,843 budgeted positions.