Lesley Weidenbener: Intrigue builds in governor’s race

I was a politics and government reporter before I came to IBJ. I spent about 25 years covering local and state government, most of that at the Indiana Statehouse for three different news organizations.

Today, I let other people do that work—and I don’t miss it. Not usually. But I have to admit that this year’s governor’s race is getting pretty interesting.

U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, the Republican, came into the race as the frontrunner. Some readers have criticized IBJ for saying that, but he had name ID, money and history on his side. An independent poll released in September also showed he had a double-digit lead over Democrat Jennifer McCormick, a former state superintendent of public instruction, and Libertarian Donald Rainwater.

It’s hard to know where the race is now (there’s been no recent independent poll), but there are indications that the race’s margin has tightened. Among them:

◗ In late September, Braun’s campaign began airing an ad attacking McCormick. In an era of constant negative campaigning, that might not seem notable. But an attack ad isn’t necessary when a candidate has a big lead. And according to Importantville, an Indianapolis-based political newsletter, the Braun campaign put $1 million behind the ad.

◗ The Democratic Governors Association is investing heavily in the Indiana race. DGA Chair Laura Kelly, the governor of Kansas, visited Indianapolis on Wednesday to campaign with McCormick. She told reporters that McCormick is among the party’s gubernatorial candidates “with excellent chances of getting across the finish line.” This month, the DGA has put $1.1 million into McCormick’s campaign. The Republican Governors Association has put nearly as much into Braun’s campaign.

◗ The Indiana Republican Party this month sent a mailer attacking Rainwater, which is likely a sign that GOP leaders are trying to limit the number of votes the Libertarian could siphon away from Braun. There’s a reason to be concerned. In 2020, when Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb won reelection, Rainwater picked up 11.4% of the vote.

◗ The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has changed its rating on the race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” In its analysis, the center said “Indiana seems to be emerging as Democrats’ best red state offensive opportunity, so it seems to merit a position at the edge of the playing field, even as Braun remains clearly favored.” Inside Elections and U.S. News and World Report made similar ratings changes.

So does all of this mean McCormick is about to pull off an upset? My gut says no. I tend to think as Election Day draws closer, voters tend to return to their roots—which in Indiana is traditionally Republican.

But I wouldn’t bet on either horse in this race. With the presidential contest close and big issues like abortion, immigration and the economy weighing on voters’ minds, it’s difficult to know how voters are weighing down-ticket races.

What I do believe is that competition is good for government and elections. Candidates from all parties at all levels of government should have to earn votes by talking to voters about the issues. McCormick, Braun and Rainwater have done that. They’ve participated in three, televised debates. They’ve held campaign events and talked with reporters about their views on economic development, education, taxes and more.

Now it’s time for voters to decide—and I can’t wait to see whom they choose.•

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Weidenbener is editor and assistant publisher of IBJ and assistant publisher of Indiana Lawyer. Email her at lweidenbener@ibj.com.